Evolution Gaming - against the odds

I made one more simulation. I ran 100 million spins of Crazy Time. If anyone interested in the code, let me know. 

100 millions spins means 200 years of Crazy Time spins. 42000 spins per month * 12 is about 500k spins per year.

How many times in one year happens a scenario that two CT bonuses "distance" gets over 300 spins (ct hits, then it's at least 300 spins before the next ct bonus hits):

Based on 100 million spins (200 years)

average is: 33.3

maximum: 50 (it means that some year that scenario happens 50 times)

minimun: 18 (some year that scenario happens only 18 times)

Question is how many times this scenario has happened already this 10 months of Crazy Time gameplay (not even one year yet)? I see it constantly happening. 10 times per month would mean already 100 times so far.

 
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Oh you still mean over one year.

Ask Evolution for the total amount of spins done since release. 

Ask them for the number of each bonus round since release.

33 times 300 = 9900

Around 2.5-3% of the time, if you played 400 000 spins, you would find yourself in a sequence whereby you don't hit a crazytime in 300 or more spins. It's probably a little higher as the range will be from 300  to 300+ without.

 
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dirtystack said:
Oh you still mean over one year.

Ask Evolution for the total amount of spins done since release. 

Ask them for the number of each bonus round since release.
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So far about 400k spins. They run 40-42k spins per month. I see these stats.

Crazy Time was released June 10th 2020 so been running 10,5 months. 

So average in my calculations for 10 months would be LESS than 33.3.

Got it?

 
So find out the absolute amount of Crazytimes there have been in that period and see if it fits within the average.

From I can see it means, on average, 1 in 40 Crazytimes Bonuses will come 300 or more spins after the previous one.

Do you agree with that?

 
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dirtystack said:
So find out the absolute amount of Crazytimes there have been in that period and see if it fits within the average.

From I can see it means, on average 1 in 40 Crazytimes will come 300 or more spins after the previous one.

Do you agree with that?
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Don't get hurted by my comment. I don't mean this bad, but I think you don't understand and trying to take this into another direction.

Of course the average amount appearance of CT is absolutely correct. I'm not interested that at all. They will make sure CT will appear right amounts in longer periods of time (it is 1/54 = 1.85%) and you can see those stats already on tracksino for example. It's 1.85% already in 3 months of time. That's fine.

I'm counting the scenarious when there are huge caps between those bonuses (over 300 spins between the CT bonuses): read how volatile the appearance of crazy time bonus is. My calculations show that it's more volatile than it should be. Why do they make it more volatile? Because it's more profitable, more addictive, people will do more deposits, they stay in the game waiting for that bonus.

Then later on of course it will appear then i.e. 5 times in a shorter period of time to keep the 1.85% correct in a long run.

My math is based on that fact that you have 54 numbers (54 places in the wheel) and if you keep rolling it every day all the time, you get certain volatiliness of the numbers. If it's an analog wheel and you don't aim to hit certain areas (read: don't rig it), it's the same as I got in 100 million spins.

 
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Assuming that the main wheel on the Crazytime game is fair, there is a 1 in 54 chance per spin that CrazyTime lands.

The distribution of Crazytime landing would follow a Binomial distribution (wiki link) 

In one of the above posts of @Stevej he claims that from empirical evidence of Tracksino he does not dispute the 1/54 chance of  CT landing, 
but claims that the CT landings are clumped. If the data of when the CT have landed are available but I doubt that they are,
the distribution could easily be analyzed in Excel or other tool.

 But I am not going to argue  😜

I just want to point out that https://wizardofodds.com/games/crazy-time/ Wizard of Odds has done some research on Crazytime,
with some effort into reverse-engineering the game. The link might be worth a read. 

 
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vanHooff said:
The distribution of Crazytime landing would follow a Binomial distribution (wiki link) 

In one of the above posts of @Stevej he claims that from empirical evidence of Tracksino he does not dispute the 1/54 chance of  CT landing, 
but claims that the CT landings are clumped. If the data of when the CT have landed are available but I doubt that they are,
the distribution could easily be analyzed in Excel or other tool.
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Yes, exactly, that is what my empirical experiment was about. Just to clarify, my empirical test tells that it's 1/54 chance in a long run, but the probability varies constantly.

Let's say I run this test ten times, so it's 1000 million spins, and I never get maximum number higher than 52. What if that number is like 100 or 150, so much higher on a real life casino game? That specific number represents the times when CT bonuses distance is over 300 spins from the previous one in a one year period of time. Do you think that by doing that empirical test gives not close enough result to the real life casino game?

In your opinion what would be the most precise way to calculate the scenario I pointed out? I'm not asking this to argue that you're wrong. I'm really curious to know how you would solve this.

 
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Stevej said:
Let's say I run this test ten times, so it's 1000 million spins, and I never get maximum number higher than 52. What if that number is like 100 or 150, so much higher on a real life casino game? That specific number represents the times when CT bonuses distance is over 300 spins from the previous one in a one year period of time. Do you think that by doing that empirical test gives not close enough result to the real life casino game?
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You would need to gather the complete history. Not just have it resonate with you when you notice it is over 300 spins at any given time. You need the complete history that shows every chain of 300 + spins as a separate event and get rid of the possibility that you are noticing it when it is 300 spins, then looking at it an hour later and noticing it is 360 spins - its still the same unbroken run, 1 of the on average 33 runs of 300+ you would expect in a year. You need to have data backing up that it is happening more often then it should, rather then just thinking it is happening more then it should based on what you are noticing.

Is it possible to make a programme that observes tracksino output 24/7 and timestamps whenever there is a Crazytime -using the the average spin rate per hour it should give you some indication as to what's going long term.

 
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dirtystack said:
You would need to gather the complete history. Not just have it resonate with you when you notice it is over 300 spins at any given time. You need the complete history that shows every chain of 300 + spins as a separate event and get rid of the possibility that you are noticing it when it is 300 spins, then looking at it an hour later and noticing it is 360 spins - its still the same unbroken run, 1 of the on average 33 runs of 300+ you would expect in a year. You need to have data backing up that it is happening more often then it should, rather then just thinking it is happening more then it should based on what you are noticing.
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Yes, that is true. I might try to dig that information from somewhere at some point.

 
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