Why do people think RTP matters? (Slot machines)

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CC.

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READ MY POST BEFORE POSTING! - I only talk about slot machines, not other games.

A slot machine is calculated on billion, billion, aaaand billion of spins. On this billion aaaand billion of spins a machine will return to player a certain amount. So why do people think this matters if a machine has 85, 95, or 97% RTP?

Sure if you play this billion and billion of spins on one machine, you will of course loose less money, but for 99.9999% of all players, this will not matter. So why is RTP still a thing when it comes to slot machines?

 
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The 'billions and billions spins' only applies to accurately calculating the average return to play, it does not mean that you will only see a difference after a billion spins.

I think the key to understatement is the average expected return/loss. Even if you play just 1 spin you have better expected return on game that has 97 % RTP compared to one that has 85 %. If you play on 1 euro bet the first one on average returns 97 cents and the latter 85 cents. Spin 100 times and on average you have lost 3 euros with the higher rtp slot and 15 euros with 85 % rtp one. 

Sure you can get lucky with lower rtp game and get unlucky with higher rtp game, so sometimes you might not feel the difference so clearly but it is definitely there. The longer you play more difference it makes. On average the 85 % rtp slot will burn your money really fast. 

You might also think that the difference between 97 % rtp and 95 % rtp isn't that big, but it is actually pretty significant. The 85 % rtp slot is so bad that most people in here would consider it unplayable.

97% RTP = 3% house edge

95% RTP = 5% house edge

85% RTP = 15% house edge

TL:DR on average the lower rtp game busts your money faster and gives you worse expected return no matter what the spin amount is. 

 
Avidgambler said:
The 'billions and billions spins' only applies to accurately calculating the average return to play, it does not mean that you will only see a difference after a billion spins.

I think the key to understatement is the average expected return/loss. Even if you play just 1 spin you have better expected return on game that has 97 % RTP compared to one that has 85 %. If you play on 1 euro bet the first one on average returns 97 cents and the latter 85 cents. Spin 100 times and on average you have lost 3 euros with the higher rtp slot and 15 euros with 85 % rtp one. 

Sure you can get lucky with lower rtp game and get unlucky with higher rtp game, so sometimes you might not feel the difference so clearly but it is definitely there. The longer you play more difference it makes. On average the 85 % rtp slot will burn your money really fast. 

You might also think that the difference between 97 % rtp and 95 % rtp isn't that big, but it is actually pretty significant. The 85 % rtp slot is so bad that most people in here would consider it unplayable.

97% RTP = 3% house edge

95% RTP = 5% house edge

85% RTP = 15% house edge

TL:DR on average the lower rtp game busts your money faster and gives you worse expected return no matter what the spin amount is. 

You dont understand RTP based on billion of spins. When calculated on billion of spins, RTP does not matter its only luck!
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A machine that has a RTP off 98% based on the billions of spin, can during 1000 spin have an real RTP of exactly anyting, it can be 50% or 5000%. What is so hard to understsand? Its only after the billion of spins is due it will pay the real RTP stated.

All of you who doubt me, please contact a slot machine provider and learn how it works.

 
Well mate you asked so I tried to explain to you why it matters as simple as I could :) . I think my answer covered it pretty well, so with all due respect I think it is you who doesn't understand how the rtp works if you think it doesn't matter on shorter term than billions of spins.  

I think what might be confusing you is the way RTP is calculated for slots and how it actually affects your expected return during your game play. 

I agree with you in that there is always the random luck factor present in gambling.  

The luck factor (and game volatility) explains why your effective RTP can vary a lot especially in short term.  

So yes after 1000 spins on 98 % RTP slot, your effective RTP could be 50 % or even that 5000 % if the game is volatile enough and you get super lucky. This doesn't change the fact that if you do those 1000 spins on a 85 % RTP slot your expected effective RTP and thus return is still much worse on average. 

 
Too simplistic a view. The less volatile a slot is the less spins it will take to have the RTP reflected. Just because they test it over a billion spins and it’s stated to be the reflected RTP over a billion spins doesn’t at all mean it takes billions of spins for the RTP to level out.

 
You are both right and wrong. Let me explain this mathematically.

You have mentioned billions of spins. Let alone billions, even in millions of spins, RTP can not jump from %50 to %98, even with max. allowed wins. This can only happen during the first tens of thousands of spins. After a certain number of spins played, the RTP travels around +-%1 of the final declared RTP.

After billions of spins, this travel becomes something like +-%0,0001 which indicates it is safe to declare the RTP.

So, you are right that it does not significantly matter if you are going to play a couple of hundered or i.e. 2000 spins but you are wrong that you need to spin billions to see the real RTP. 

What should matter more is the volatility. 

To be honest, real question here should be if the RTP is calculated globally or casino-based? As you know, it is casino-based in land casinos. If, for online slots,  it is calculated globally, the RTP would be more insignifacant for short term players.

 
masterDD said:
You are both right and wrong. Let me explain this mathematically.

You have mentioned billions of spins. Let alone billions, even in millions of spins, RTP can not jump from %50 to %98, even with max. allowed wins. This can only happen during the first tens of thousands of spins. After a certain number of spins played, the RTP travels around +-%1 of the final declared RTP.

After billions of spins, this travel becomes something like +-%0,0001 which indicates it is safe to declare the RTP.

So, you are right that it does not significantly matter if you are going to play a couple of hundered or i.e. 2000 spins but you are wrong that you need to spin billions to see the real RTP. 

What should matter more is the volatility. 

To be honest, real question here should be if the RTP is calculated globally or casino-based? As you know, it is casino-based in land casinos. If, for online slots,  it is calculated globally, the RTP would be more insignifacant for short term players.
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No I am not wrong, the real rtp will "not show" after just many spins, you need to practically play for so long that is not humanly possible. It does not matter if you play land or online, its just a trick for online gambling.

mosmagic said:
I look at it as am I the poor bastard that gets the lump sum of the bad RTP or am I the lucky one who hits BIG (never). Lower RTP means it will happen (lose) to someone more often and the more I play the better the odds of losing 
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Nah you are just the regual player. The regual player always loose. And no the RTP is just a number telling how much the machine will pay back on a massive amount of spins, it does not say what you will win back, in the end you just need to be lucky. It does not matter if its 50% rtp or 99% rtp, luck is the only thing that matter.

dirtystack said:
Too simplistic a view. The less volatile a slot is the less spins it will take to have the RTP reflected. Just because they test it over a billion spins and it’s stated to be the reflected RTP over a billion spins doesn’t at all mean it takes billions of spins for the RTP to level out.
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Please explain more.

Avidgambler said:
Well mate you asked so I tried to explain to you why it matters as simple as I could :) . I think my answer covered it pretty well, so with all due respect I think it is you who doesn't understand how the rtp works if you think it doesn't matter on shorter term than billions of spins.  

I think what might be confusing you is the way RTP is calculated for slots and how it actually affects your expected return during your game play. 

I agree with you in that there is always the random luck factor present in gambling.  

The luck factor (and game volatility) explains why your effective RTP can vary a lot especially in short term.  

So yes after 1000 spins on 98 % RTP slot, your effective RTP could be 50 % or even that 5000 % if the game is volatile enough and you get super lucky. This doesn't change the fact that if you do those 1000 spins on a 85 % RTP slot your expected effective RTP and thus return is still much worse on average. 
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The problem here is that you dont understand RTP. You think of it as a simple thing, it aint. You cant just think rtp and talk about a few spins.

 
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Well dude, once again you are not really addressing the points me and some others have made in this thread. If you already made up you'r mind beforehand why did you ask in the first place. I don't know why you are making the assumption that I think of it as a simple thing? I never said or intended so, actually quite the contrary. I think I very well might have something more to learn here. I may have oversimplified and generalized some things just to make make a point and make it easier to grasp. If we look at your replies one could say it is actually you who has the narrow and simplistic viewpoint towards this topic. Summarized you are basically saying  RTP doesn't matter at all because nobody can play billions and billions of spins.

I will try this one more time :D  Maybe you can actually try to make some arguments and conversation this time and not just blatantly say you are right whereas others are wrong.

I agree ( and I think we all agree) that in order to calculate the true RTP of a slot machine they have to test it with billions of spins so they can declare the RTP sufficiently. 

I think we all agree that gambling is a game of luck.  In the end you just need to be lucky and even so if you play long enough you are going to end up losing. No matter what you play. 

Where we disagree is that does the RTP matter. You say it doesn't while I think it does. I get you point of view but I still think you are thinking too much about the calculation process. As some people have already mentioned in this topic just because they test it over a billion spins and it’s stated to be the reflected RTP over a billion spins doesn’t mean it takes billions of spins for the RTP to level out. Depending on the game volatility the spin amount might differ greatly but in generally the longer you play the RTP will travel closer to the declared RTP.  For some low volatility games it might be as low as 20 000 spins and you are most likely already coming closer to the declared RTP. For volatile games the needed spin amount is obviously much much bigger. 

Just because gambling is based on luck doesn't mean the RTP wouldn't have effect on your expected return even on shorter terms than billions of spins. 

Here is something to think about, a hypothetical situation: If you would have to play a very low volatility slot 10 000 spins with either 0 % RTP, 50 % RTP or 95 % RTP. Would you consider picking the 0 % RTP one or 50 % RTP one? I am pretty confident the high RTP slot would have best expected return, so I would pick the high RTP one if I had to choose. If you think the RTP doesn't matter and you could pick the 0 % RTP or 50% RTP one and expect same return then we just have to agree to disagree :)  

 
RTP definitely matters. While you're unlikely to hit the exact theoretical RTP, you have proportionally better chances of having a lucky winning session on the higher RTP. 

To visualize it think of the Roulette wheel. The 0 is the house edge. If you got 00 as well the house edge is doubled. Slots at 96,5% sit inbetween these two. But If you're playing a let's say 90% game, it's like you have 4 different zeroes. Now if you simulate some play on that Roulette, betting only on Red or Black to make it simpler, you'll quickly realize you'll have far fewer winning days on the 4 zero configuration.  

 
CC. said:
Please explain more
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It’s not complicated.

games provides are required to prove that their rtp reflects the stated over a billion simulated spins. 
That doesn’t mean that it takes a billion spins to see the true rtp. It’s just the industry standard way of testing.

if a slot provider made a coin flip slot game where you hade a 50/50 chance of winning and every time you won you got paid 1.98x, they would still need to do a billion spin benchmark to prove the rtp is 96% after a billion spins.

the 96% rtp would level out at 96% after a few hundred/thousand.

low volatility reduces the amount of spins to see the stated rtp despite the fact the tests require  1 000 000 000 spins.

 
dirtystack said:
if a slot provider made a coin flip slot game where you hade a 50/50 chance of winning and every time you won you got paid 1.98x, they would still need to do a billion spin benchmark to prove the rtp is 96% after a billion spins.
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Posted from my filthy phone, meant to type that it pays 1.92x when you win.

 
dirtystack said:
Posted from my filthy phone, meant to type that it pays 1.92x when you win.
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CC. said:
A machine that has a RTP off 98% based on the billions of spin, can during 1000 spin have an real RTP of exactly anyting, it can be 50% or 5000%. What is so hard to understsand? Its only after the billion of spins is due it will pay the real RTP stated.
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The rtp is not based on a billions spins, it is based on the mathematical model developed and buried within the game.

the billions of spins thing you are basing your whole argument is the testing the developers have to do show the legislators and regulators that it is behaving as the mathematical model dictates over billions of spins.

it doesn’t take a lifetime to test a billion spins on a slot by the way, you just need the mathematical model they use and to throw the equation billions of times into a sufficiently powerful computer. A billion spins will be performed in the blink of an eye. 

 
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Maybe this is an easier way to understand?

If we reduce slots to the flipping of a coin, then we can see things like this in a scenario of you vs casino.

At 100% RTP:

You bet €1. If you win, casino pays you €2.

At 98% RTP:

You bet €1. If you win, casino pays you €1.98.

At 96% RTP:

You bet €1. If you win, casino pays you €1.96.

There are many different ways to try to make people understand RTP is very important. This is one way I think.

 
I don't know why I clicked this thread, it gave me a headache. CC is right but going about it all wrong. Others arguments are all valid. You can't just say it doesn't matter...but also yes you can't expect the return in your lifetime no matter what. The RTP is based on the ODDS of the game which is programmed by the Game Provider. Usually (from what I have learned/understand) it's based on the reels pattern outcomes which have a certain range of outcomes. Each reel has it's OWN RNG and when you hit spin each one of those RNGs stop and the payout is determined. I don't know 100% but I'm pretty sure bonus rounds are all pre-determined as you really only hit the spin button once to initiate it, it's just a fancy way of determining the outcome. for example...the dreaded 0 bonus, or a perfectly rounded 50x win or something.

It's late, I don't know why I even replied but it's all debatable and the only people who know the truth about how it works are the game developers. Love me some slots and I don't care if it's pre-determined or not. If they are still entertaining then I'm gonna play. Don't play to make money, sharpen your edge when possible and have fun!

Love to all :D

 
Saying OP is right is a bit of a stretch, but I understand what is implied.

Higher RTP = higher chance of winning, or getting higher paying game rounds

And yes, in a very limited amount of spins players can be getting a good outcome, even with low RTP, or bad outcome, despite high RTP.

Considering PlaynGo titles who run at different RTPs across different sites:

As a player, you have a better chance of getting more value/getting more (or bigger) wins on Book of Dead when playing at Unibet instead of playing at Videoslots

And that would be a fact because Unibet runs it at high RTP, and videoslots run it at low RTP.

 
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