Tour de France - Stage Betting tips

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NeWbZs

NeWbZs

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The Giro d'Italia was a big miss. Many unpredictable winners, so I made a loss. No problem, the Tour de France should be easier to predict, and I see a lot of money coming our way. I am not going to do the General classification bets simply because I don't want to wait 3 weeks for a bet to come in :)  

Stage 1 » Brest › Landerneau (197.8km)

The first stage is a ''classic'' stage. Many hills, small roads, rain is expected. This stage is going to be crazy.

Mathieu van der Poel @ 3.50

Julian Alaphilippe top 3 @ 2.50

In: 20
Out: 0
Total: -20

 
Much appreciated! 

First impression of these first bets: van der Poel @ 3.50 (28.5% implied winrate) that seems very low with 184 riders? 

So I might pass on these first bets, but will surely follow thread and some of the other bets

 
Yes its low but its likely vd Poel won't ride all the stage to prepare for the Olympics. He only joins the tour for the first 2 stages, so he will give it all. Also, he won stages like this, this year and last year so he is top favorite. 

 
^^ even the cycling expert on national radio says how first stage is tailored to van de Poel, I might reconsider. 

 
A small profit, not bad. Usually I would post bets around 8 pm but today where to big crashes in the peloton. Woods was involved and I had my eye on him for tomorrow's stage.

Will post the bet when I have more info on him. Tip might be tomorrow morning .

 
Stage 2 » Perros-Guirec›Mûr-de-Bretagne Guerlédan (183.5km)

Tomorrows stage is compareble to todays stage only the last climb is way harder. Couldnt find anything on Woods so my bets stays. Also Roglic was very strong and I think he might attack on tommorows last climb.

Primoz Roglic @ 8.00

Michael Woods @ 23.00

 
Stage 3 » Lorient › Pontivy (182.9km)

Caleb Ewan @ 3.00

Arnaud Demare @ 8.00

In: 60 Out: 24Total: -36

 
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Our bets: Caleb Ewan 400m before the finish

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Demare 4 km before the finish

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Not much to do about this. Ill wait for more info about the crashes to post the new bets. 

 
In: 80 Out: 24Total: -56

No win today. Tomorrow will be the time trail, should be easier to predict. Hopefully the odds will be alright.

 
Stage 5 (ITT) » Changé › Laval Espace Mayenne(27.2km)

Only rider with value in my eyes.

Stefan Kung  @ 5.50

 
Stage 6 » Tours › Châteauroux (160.4km)
 
@#(*$#*@! Kung 2nd everything went as expected only to lose by an insane ride of Pogacar. So close yet so far.

In a podcast the team leader of Alpacin-Fenix said that Tim Melier will not be sprinting for today's stage but they will use Jasper Philipsen instead. Not a lot of people seem to know this because Meliers odds are very low and Philipsen are high. So 2 bets on the same person, very good value in my eyes!
 
Jasper Philipsen  @ 13.00


Jasper Philipsen Top 3  @ 4.00
 
In: 110Out: 24Total: -86
 
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Odds dropped massively, but there still is some value. Van Aert might not be sprinting after yesterday's TT and Melier won't be sprinting at all. Demare has fallen of his bike and I am not sure if he is fit enough already.  That only leaves 2 contenders for the win. Philipsen isn't the strongest but there is still some value left.

Screenshot_20210701-112708-055.png

 
Jasper Philipsen (105) 2nd, so we win. The info was good and the bet was great value. Philipsen got a bit held up by his teammate but dont think that matters that much. 

image.png

In: 110Out: 64Total: -46

 
Stage 7 » Vierzon  ›Le Creusot (249.1km)

Sonny Colbrelli @ 17.00

In: 120Out: 64Total: -56

 
Stage 8»Oyonnax›Le Grand-Bornand(150.8km)


 
Yesterday was totally different then expected, so not even close. For today, I wanted to bed Woods, but the odds drop way too fast from 21 to 13. Odds are not great, but I do think that this stage is perfect for Woods.
 
Micheal Woods @ 13.00
 
In: 130Out: 64Total: -66
 
Stage 2: Win Roglic @ 8.00 result 3rd
Stage 5: WIn Kung @ 5.50 result 2nd
Stage 6: Win Philipsen @ 13.00 result 2nd
Stage 8: Win Woods @ 13.00 result 3rd

I am developing a talent for picking the number 2 and 3. Last year everything went my way and now I have many near misses. Terrible for motivation. Already got some picks for tomorrow, if I pick another 2nd or 3rd place, I will take a break.

Also this was Woods with about 20kms to go:
 
 
Screenshot_20210703-162324-751.png

 
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Stage 9 » Cluses›Tignes(144.9km)

Tadej Pogacar @ 3.50
Miguel Angel Lopez @ 15.00
 
In: 150Out: 64Total: -86
 
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