Superbowl LV bets

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vanHooff

vanHooff

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Hey guys,

this weekend American Football Super Bowl LV (55) is played between Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs are the current Super Bowl (54) Champions and a slight favourite to win.
Their quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a superstar. Also their coach Andy Reid is brilliant.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature superstar Tom Brady who not only plays his tenth (!) Super Bowl but is also married to Gisele Bundchen

The Super Bowl is the biggest yearly sports event, and thousands of betting propositions are available, including some 'exotic' bets.

Some of these bets can be made on colour of clothing, colour of Gatorade shower, length of the anthem.

If someone wants to discuss (value of) some of these bets, please let me know. 

Should be fun!

Disclaimer: I am a terrible sports bettor, but I have a very sharp mind.

 
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Anyone?
Lots of cross-sports bets on offer at various places, and of course tons of other bets.
I have access to what I think some pretty decent player prop stats, should be fun to figure out which bets are the worst. :)  

This guy killed the o/u on 'length of anthem' bets at 2 minutes. 
I got a little bit of action in, won't mention the sportsbook yet because my bet could be voided.
 


 
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Hey cool good luck with your bet!

I have looked up a similar or identical prop bet on Will Hill for indication of odds and wording of rules.

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This implies a vigorish of 2.48% and implied True Win percentages of 37.18% for the over and 62.82% for the under on this prop.
If either of the lines were priced too high, it would be the over because of more people betting on unusual things to happen than to bet on things not to happen. 

Also googled this prop bet for other people's thoughts:
https://fansided.com/2021/02/02/best-prop-bets-super-bowl-55/

So this one boils down to the chance of either starting Quarterback getting replaced/injured during the game + trick plays.
Maybe also the chance of backward passes should be added. These happen sometimes in the final play of the game when the clock is running out, and the team in possession trails by 8 or less. 

For this prop I do not have sufficient hard relevant data but if I had to ballpark these:
chance of replaced quarterback: 5%
chance of trick play: 22% (assuming that KC 4 trick plays in regular season are indicative) 
chance of other: 5%

With true chances of 32%-68% I should be inclined to bet the under, but I don't trust my ballpark calculations over the lines of the bookmakers.
 

 
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I have a handful of bets like these, and probably more to come, cross-sport lines at Will Hill:

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Pinnacle lines and model say expectation for shortest FG made is about 24 yards, Giannis expected points is about 28.
Should be good enough to overcome 4.5% vig.
Good fun to lookup these, cross-sport lines may move slower than other lines so possibly a little bit of value in these as well.

 
For me i just placed a classic straight up on Chiefs, i dont see them losing this.

Side punt: 5 or more TD/ half (unlikely but lol)

 
Watching the game and doing well so far.

Won the anthem over bet, Brady the quarterback being mentioned first, Tampa Bay to receive ball.

I have lots of small bets speculating that Gronkowski has a good game. With a reception and a touchdown for Gronk in Q1 this is looking great. 

Probably going to swing and miss on the Halftime prop bets though. 

 
So how much did 'fan on the field' pay? 

I have not bet that, but someone must have, I've seen this prop 🙂

 
Going to tally scores tomorrow, I should be ahead.

A couple of the higher odds winning bets that have not been settled yet:

Screenshot_20210208-032555.jpg

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^^ nice freebet :D  [edit] darn that last one going to be bonus money, no big problem converting though.

 
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