NBA bets after All-Star Break until end of regular season and maybe playoffs

Today Bet #67 Atlanta Hawks beat Brooklyn Nets, Odds 2,15, 1 unit

If you want to beat the Brooklyn Nets, you need to punish their holes in the defense. Durant and Irving can score with the best, but the defense is a disaster and they allow too many open shots and lay-ups.

Atlanta has its flaws but at home they can score with the best of them, having a very high offensive rating over the last 5 games. Bruce Brown will try to slow Trae Young down, but he will use the pick-and roll to get Drummond constantly involved which will lead to breakdowns in defense of Nets.

Nets always get the best effort from their opponents and with Atlanta being quite a force at home, I side with Atlanta Hawks tonight.

Today Bet #68 Golden State Warriors beat Utah Jazz, Odds 2,15, 1 unit

for both teams it's a key game for playoff position. Both teams have been losing lots of games lately, due to injury and bad teamplay. Despite Jazz winning and Warriors losing last game, I do see a higher improvement for Warriors.

Against the best team Phoenix Suns,  the Warriors were able to keep the game close all game and really found solutions against the mobile Suns defense and fought hard to defend them. Just a repeat of that performance will be enough to beat Utah.

Jazz defense despite Rudy Gobert back, got roasted quite a bit by the bad lakers without LeBron and AD. They won the game easy thanks to multiple Lakers defense breakdowns. If Draymond Green can orchester the defense better like in last game, then Jazz will have much tougher time to score today, making Warriors the favorites tonight to win.

 
Today Bet #69 New Orleans Pelicans beat LA Clippers, Odds 2,25, 1 unit

This game is gonna be decided by motivation to improve playoff position. The Clippers have the 8th spot as good as clinched. Sure they could get overtaken theoretically by Pelicans but that's quite a longshot with so few games left.

Pelicans had a huge win at Lakers just a night ago where they made a huge improvement on their chances to clinch the 9th spot and having home court advantage for the first play-in game. 

So now the question is, who will play harder tonight? For me it's the Pelicans, if all players are playing. That Pelicans full starting line-up is actually a top-4 lineup when healthy. I would advise to wait until line-ups are confirmed and if all is well for Pelicans, they are my favorite to win tonight. 

 
Today Bet #70 Charlotte Hornets beat Miami Heat, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Heat have been the righting the ship with some close wins on the road at Celtics and Raptors, however they could have easily lost those games and stared at a long losing week instead. 

Suddenly they feel again that they have righted the ship and can win the East again. I am not so convinced that this Heat team is as dominant as they appear to be, especially as big favorites.

Hornets are an interesting team to bet on because their confusing results go in both directions, they can win vs. top teams but also get absolutely crushed. They have performed well after losing games ATS, going 21-14 in the game after.

That Heat team strikes me as being fat and happy after the successful road trip and sleeping in the first half of this game back in Miami. You could bet Hornets first half as a decent bet to lower the risk of Heat waking up in the 2nd half, but I will simply play Hornets ML full game for bigger odds.

 
Today Bet #71 Portland TrailBlazers beat Oklahoma City Thunder, Odds 2,65, 1 unit

It is a very tactical bet, because both teams actually want to lose in order to better their draft lottery chances. The question, who wants to lose less than the other?

I like Portland tonight, because OKC had a great win vs. Phoenix and that is probably one win too much for them now in their standings. No need to risk improving the winning record in order to give Pacers a chance to catch them for 4th worst record for best chances in draft lottery.

Blazers team is horrible, but if OKC doesnt try hard enough, they are not much worse than them. In those tanking battles, always go with the value underdog ML which pays big if the OKC tanking reigns supreme. 

 
Today Bet #72 Detroit Pistons beat Milwaukee Bucks, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Bucks will rest probably all their stars on the back-to-back after tough game vs. Celtics. The rest of the Bucks is really struggling to defend and score at an decent NBA level.

Pistons lost last game vs. Dallas, but the result looked worse than the whole game. Only in the end, the lead got too huge. Agains a non-100% Bucks team, the Pistons will have all chances to win this game. Also it wont matter that they win that game for draft lottery because they are 2 wins behind the next team, so they are not forced to lose!

 
This last weekend of NBA is filled with pretty crazy results, so I will today take the 3 dogs who have a realistic shot to win and personally also use them in 3 2-team parlays, hoping for 2 teams winning outright for big payouts. Thats my personal strategy, so no financial advice, but high variance plays this weekend are the call for me.

Today Bet #73 New Orleans Pelicans beat Memphis Grizzlies, Odds 3,15, 1 unit

It's a bet on the look of the Memphis Grizzlies during the last 2 games at Utah and at Denver. Sure the altitude played a role, but several of the players like Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones looked much more tired and less energetic than in the past 2 months. If I were coach Jenkins, I would surely think about resting more players tonight in a meaningless game.

Pelicans can improve their play-in positioning with a win and secure the 9th seed. Ingram is questionable and probably wont play but the rest of the team has been playing very decently over the last couple of weeks. If Grizzlies are not close to 100% effort and players are rested, it will be a closer game than expected.

Today Bet #74 San Antonio Spurs beat Golden State Warriors, Odds 2,95, 1 unit

Everybody crowning the Warriors already as the clear 3rd seed of the West with a big chance to advance to Western Conference finals. I admit that their offense gets more and more clicking with every game despite Curry out. However their defense still isnt clicking like early in the season, proven by the good shots the Lakers generated in last match.

Spurs have been covering many games lately because of bookies still underestamating them with Murray out. Tre Jones has proven to be a different kind of PG, who has different strengths. Coach Pop wasnt intentionally trying to make the play-in but his team simply played to well to tank, so today he will again simply let his team play and see what happens. With the Spurs not tanking, this game is much closer than bookies expect. 

Today Bet #75 Sacramento Kings beat LA Clippers, Odds 6,85, 1 unit

For Coach Alvin Gentry those will be his last 2 head coach games, because after this sad season we should finally see Kings legend Doug Christie get the chance to lead the Kings team into a new era. So there is no reason for him to tank because he wont be there to earn the benefits of a higher pick.

Clippers will simply try lineups for the play-ins and use this game to practice and not really caring about the end result. More important is keeping everyone healthy and in good spirits. With their motivation questionable, any bet on the Kings is recommended. Betting Kings +11,5 is totally fine but with this being the last nba weekend, I could see more shock results happen. 

 
Today Bet #76 New Orleans Pelicans +10,5 cover vs. Phoenix Suns, Odds 2,0, 1 unit

Game 1 tonight is the biggest advantage for the teams who got through the play-in games. They are ready for the intensity, while the big favorites are trying to get their rust off. Look for Pelicans to continue playing hard and making it tough for Suns to win big. Even a surprise win is possible, so if you wanna bet Pelicans ML at 5,9+ that's fine as well, but I bet +10,5 because the Suns wont be at 100% in Game 1. 

 
Today Bet #77 Toronto Raptors +7,5 cover vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game 2, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Raptors with injury issues, but they do have a bit of depth on the team which will help mitigate the risk of losing too much quality tonight. 76ers played fantastically in Game 1, not easy to repeat the same efficiency numbers.

Coach Nurse talked lots about the referees last game, lets see if they continue to give Embiid free reign to bowl everyone over or if refs choose to listen to Coach Nurse. In the end I see lots of ways Philly will be worse tonight than in last game, so a close game is more probable than the bookies and public expect. I trust in Coach Nurse to make good adjustments. 

 
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