NBA bets after All-Star Break until end of regular season and maybe playoffs

Today Bet #41 OKC Thunder +16,5 cover vs. Miami Heat, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Bet is based on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing for Thunder. If he is confirmed in the lineup, it's value up to OKC +14 1,95. If he is out, I would still play Thunder +17,5 1,95 and higher. Lineup infos can be had fasted via Twitter on the Draftkings or NBA info twitter accounts for fantasy sports DFS. 

Again it's a year of rebuild for OKC and over the season they lost more and more of their good players to injuries like Dort, Giddey, Williams and Jerome. SGA is the only remaining true NBA player on the roster, Bazley can be ok but other than that it looks bleak.

However the bookies have OKC so far down the power rankings, that they managed to be 40-25 ATS this season, a far improvement vs. 31-40 ATS last year. They still lose many games but cover much more than they used to. 

So far SGA hasnt sit out any of those impossible to win games, it looks as if he is unwilling to tank on purpose. As long as this attitude is in this team, they will continue to cover more often than not as huge underdogs. 

Today Bet #42 LA Clippers beat Utah Jazz Odds 2,95, 1 unit

Jazz injuries are piling on with Mitchell out tonight and House, Bogdanovic questionable. If you add the loss of Ingles earlier this season, then you only have a few guys left who know how to play Coach Snyder type of basketball. Things gotten so bad, that Jazz have now resorted to playing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who is still adjusting to Jazz after trade and is not a typical Jazz player yet.

Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Clippers, that's why they sat Reggie Jackson during last road trip for a game. At least Covington is back after personal break. They will try to repeat the same strategy of playing small-ball vs. Jazz if they struggle vs. Gobert just like they did in last playoffs. The defense on the perimeter for the Jazz is atrocious. 

Tonight I bet on the Clippers because of the urgency to stop the losing streak soon, which I heard after their last Raptors loss. Even though I bet against Clippers in that game, I was quite impressed by their effort because Raptors are a really good team. Next game at Denver would be an even bigger hurdle, so beating Jazz tonight is in my eyes the easier chance to break losing streak. We should see at least an inspired effort by Clippers, giving us at least a good chance to cash high odds. 

 
Today Bet #43 Dallas Mavericks beat Charlotte Hornets, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Attention: This bet is based on all Mavs players suiting up except for Dinwiddie. You can wait until official lineups are posted and then play the bet. If a big name like Luka Doncic is out, you can still play the Mavs at 0,5 units with the adjusted higher odds.

Either way I am backing the Mavericks because they are quite the antidote to the Hornets wild and undisciplined playstyle. Hornets love free-flowing play in the open court with games scored in the 130s if possible. Whenever the game slows down in the half-court, their efficiency plummets.

Mavs will keep the tempo slow, typical of Jason Kidd and Luka Doncic, making it a grind it out low-scoring affair with the better 3-point shooting deciding the game. And thats where I emphasize the major quality difference. Mavs allow super few 3-pointers and also defend them very well. Hornets simply allow the 2nd-most 3s in the league and also allow a higher percentage.

Sure, the Mavs could have tired legs and miss tons of 3s tonight, losing this way. But if both teams play their normal average game, Mavs will win more often than not because of superior shot creation. 

 
Today Bet #44 Portland TrailBlazers beat Indiana Pacers, Odds 3,5, 1 unit

Tanking teams facing each other, Part 1. Both teams are not interested in playoffs and simply want to play unknown and young players to see if one of them is worth keeping for next season.

So it's basically just journeymen trying to keep their jobs and try hard instead of real team play or having a team goal. In those situations it's always advisable to play the away dog because home advantage in those cases is lower than usual.

Pacers technically have more talent, but who knows how their established players are spending their free time during those dire times. They have already shown how to lose winnable games over the last weeks after the Haliburton trade.

Any odds > 2,5 in those tanking vs. tanking teams are historically valuable, so I will keep searching for those spots. And odds over 3.3 like today are definitely worth a big bet. Again you could play TrailBlazers +7,5 to lower variance if desired. 

 
Today Bet #45 NY Knicks beat Utah Jazz, Odds 2,5, 1 unit

Last bet for today: Lots of odds movements in other games, so I will just add this single bet here for today.

Mike Conley is out for Utah, who has been a thorn in the Knicks side in many games. His overview of the court plus his underrated team defense are issues for the Knicks team to solve over the last games. No surprise his Plus/Minus numbers vs. the Knicks have been very good because he led the bench to big scoring runs.

Now it's even more the Donovan Mitchell show, so he can score 30+ points easy tonight, but wont get the others easier buckets and also lacks more on defense. The quicker, the Knicks can draw fouls on Gobert or ONeale, the more holes the defense of the Jazz will get. 

Game will be decided on the free throw line and with offensive rebounds by guys like Randle and Robinson. With Conley out, the Knicks have a golden opportunity tonight to get closer to the play-in spot with a win. 

 
Today Bet #46 San Antonio Spurs +6,5 cover vs. Golden State Warriors, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

This bet is simply based on following stat: Warriors have not covered -6,5 in the last 15 games without Steph Curry playing over the last 2 years!

As good as the Warriors have been this season, coach Kerr still hasnt solved the mystery of playing well without Curry in the lineup. He makes and breaks this team, no matter how good or bad the opponent. 

Usually I would take the risk and play ML Spurs winner at 3,3, but coach Gregg Popovich is the one coach who decides NOT to foul down 6 with few seconds in the game, so that +6,5 line is right at the edge of that. That makes the spread here more useful than not.

Still, if you want to add ML, I sure wont stop you from doing it because of the Warriors dependence on Curry. 

 
4 bets today, will post them all in one now because not sure when I return to a computer today, all a bit shorter due to lack of time. Good Luck

Today Bet #47 LA Lakers beat Cleveland Cavaliers, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Every time LeBron returns to Cleveland, it's a very exciting time with him being ready to play well in front of his family of friends from that area. 3 things make me bet Lakers tonight. a) Cavs are really tired now, said so after the Pistons win, where they just got lucky late. b) The inclusion of Wenyen Gabriel in the lineup brings more young legs in the Lakers team and puts Reaves back on the bench where he performs better vs. reserve players after getting subbed in, good decision by Coach Vogel which will pay off.  c) Referees have decided to call more personal fouls now than earlier this season, which will benefit LeBron and Westbrook and give them more Free Throws than Cavs are used to giving up. 

Today Bet #48 Portland TrailBlazers beat Detroit Pistons, Odds 3,65, 1 unit

Last 12 times the Pistons covered, but only because they got such huge spreads to cover. Now they are huge favorites themselves which they are not accustomed to. Back-to-back fatigue is no issue because Blazers players except for Hart have basically not played at all for 2/3 of the season. Blazers +8 1,95 is probably the better option tonight with Pistons struggling to crush bad teams, but tonight I will play all my 4 Moneyline dogs in different parlays and combos, hoping that at least 2 of them will win for profit. 

Today Bet #49 Toronto Raptors beat Chicago Bulls, Odds 2,45, 1 unit

Attention: VanVleet is probable to play, so you can wait for lineups to play this bet. If he doesnt, then the odds will rise to hopefully 2,8+ to play it. Generally I am ok backing the Raptors even on a back-to-back travelling from a tough game because of coach Nurse, the youth of the team and that their length and defense travels well in away games. Sure, they could get blown out, if Bulls hit lots of 3s, but Raptors defense should give us a chance to win that game. 

Today Bet #50 Houston Rockets beat Washington Wizards, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Every time the Wizards are big favorites this late in the season, I am willing to fade them because their lack of motivation is palpable. Even against Lakers, a team where there should be some motivation, they barely squaked out a win. Now at Houston, they are supposed to play hard? I could imagine those Wizards players actually caring more about the strip clubs at Houston than playing hard tonight. Prime example was their loss at Portland vs. an even poorer team. Key for Rockets is always their 3-point performance, so I hope Wizards disinterest of defense leads to many open 3s for Houston to win. 

 
biggestdosser said:
4 bets today, will post them all in one now because not sure when I return to a computer today, all a bit shorter due to lack of time. Good Luck

Today Bet #47 LA Lakers beat Cleveland Cavaliers, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Every time LeBron returns to Cleveland, it's a very exciting time with him being ready to play well in front of his family of friends from that area. 3 things make me bet Lakers tonight. a) Cavs are really tired now, said so after the Pistons win, where they just got lucky late. b) The inclusion of Wenyen Gabriel in the lineup brings more young legs in the Lakers team and puts Reaves back on the bench where he performs better vs. reserve players after getting subbed in, good decision by Coach Vogel which will pay off.  c) Referees have decided to call more personal fouls now than earlier this season, which will benefit LeBron and Westbrook and give them more Free Throws than Cavs are used to giving up. 

Today Bet #48 Portland TrailBlazers beat Detroit Pistons, Odds 3,65, 1 unit

Last 12 times the Pistons covered, but only because they got such huge spreads to cover. Now they are huge favorites themselves which they are not accustomed to. Back-to-back fatigue is no issue because Blazers players except for Hart have basically not played at all for 2/3 of the season. Blazers +8 1,95 is probably the better option tonight with Pistons struggling to crush bad teams, but tonight I will play all my 4 Moneyline dogs in different parlays and combos, hoping that at least 2 of them will win for profit. 

Today Bet #49 Toronto Raptors beat Chicago Bulls, Odds 2,45, 1 unit

Attention: VanVleet is probable to play, so you can wait for lineups to play this bet. If he doesnt, then the odds will rise to hopefully 2,8+ to play it. Generally I am ok backing the Raptors even on a back-to-back travelling from a tough game because of coach Nurse, the youth of the team and that their length and defense travels well in away games. Sure, they could get blown out, if Bulls hit lots of 3s, but Raptors defense should give us a chance to win that game. 

Today Bet #50 Houston Rockets beat Washington Wizards, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Every time the Wizards are big favorites this late in the season, I am willing to fade them because their lack of motivation is palpable. Even against Lakers, a team where there should be some motivation, they barely squaked out a win. Now at Houston, they are supposed to play hard? I could imagine those Wizards players actually caring more about the strip clubs at Houston than playing hard tonight. Prime example was their loss at Portland vs. an even poorer team. Key for Rockets is always their 3-point performance, so I hope Wizards disinterest of defense leads to many open 3s for Houston to win. 
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Big Congrats again mate!! 3 out of 4 spot on!! Hope you enjoyed swimming in the murky multiple depths for once hehe and a couple of combos should've hit good for you hopefully!

I had won free £5 bet from my bookie so did double on Lakers & Rockets as they seemed most likely double - staked at 6.00 though when it got to 85-92 about 3 mins into 4th i cashed for £25 as too often when i get greedy an upset comes! Turns out i should've had the balls to hold out for finish, though still real happy with free winnings! 

Thanks very much again and hope you're having a great start to the week otherwise!

 
dagreenblazer said:
Big Congrats again mate!! 3 out of 4 spot on!! Hope you enjoyed swimming in the murky multiple depths for once hehe and a couple of combos should've hit good for you hopefully!

I had won free £5 bet from my bookie so did double on Lakers & Rockets as they seemed most likely double - staked at 6.00 though when it got to 85-92 about 3 mins into 4th i cashed for £25 as too often when i get greedy an upset comes! Turns out i should've had the balls to hold out for finish, though still real happy with free winnings! 

Thanks very much again and hope you're having a great start to the week otherwise!
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Nice that you won some money with the picks. I got lucky by hitting 3 out of my 6 two-team parlays for a nice profit. That is the variance of NBA ML underdogs betting. On good days, you make lots of units to keep your head over water until bad streaks come again. Looking at my ROI, suddenly we are back over 10% ROI just by winning 3 out of 4 bets today. That's the normal business in this kind of betting. 

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Today Bet #51 NY Knicks beat Atlanta Hawks, Odds 2,1, 1 unit

No chance that Knicks should be underdogs vs. Atlanta, even with Coach Thibs now playing more rookies and young players in the rotation after giving up on the playoffs. This game is a revenge game from last years playoffs when Hawks punked Knicks. It's time for more payback after winning all 3 games so far vs. Hawks in the regular season.

This Hawks is not the same as last years playoffs. Collins is out, Huerter and Bogdanovic have been quite hurt over the last days and weeks at maybe 40% of their skillz. Lou Williams is also out and Capela has regressed in his performance. Only Galinari is playing fine and Trae Young cant save the rest of the team, if they play poorly. 

Collins was the main defender of Randle during playoffs, it will be harder for Hawks to stop him despite Randle having such a poor season. Kick the rival while he is down, that is another good opportunity to crush Hawks chances for a good playoff spot. Anything 2,0 and better is worth betting. Expecting odds to drop, therefore I post early for readers to place their bets. 

 
Today Bet #52 Orlando Magic +7,5 cover vs. Golden State Warriors, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Lets do it one more time again: This bet is simply based on following stat: Warriors have not covered -7,5 in the last 16 games without Steph Curry playing over the last 2 years!

As good as the Warriors have been this season, coach Kerr still hasnt solved the mystery of playing well without Curry in the lineup. He makes and breaks this team, no matter how good or bad the opponent. 

Usually I would take the risk and play ML Magic winner at 3,9, but in last game, the late game execution by Warriors wasnt bad and they got unlucky vs. Spurs to lose that game. Also Orlando is questionable late with Cole Anthony as PG, not a real good one. I wish Fultz were healthy enough to close the games instead, but he is still on minutes restriction. 

Still, if you want to add ML, I sure wont stop you from doing it because of the Warriors dependence on Curry. 

 
Today Bet #53 Oklahoma City Thunder beat Orlando Magic, Odds 2,25, 1 unit

Just watched the Magic fighting hard with lots of passion at home to beat Warriors. They got very very lucky to win this game thanks to joke turnovers by Golden State and stupid fouls in 4th quarter. Orlando still is limited in creating shots and they shoot extremely poorly from 3-point range.

But main reason I fade them is the high probability that Fultz is sitting out again the 2nd game of a back-to-back to protect his body. He was the main reason that Orlando rallied to win the game. With him out, Magic get much worse and OKC has a great chance to win that game.

Unfortunately Shai sits out due to ankle soreness, but I still see OKC as more hungry tonight vs. a happy Magic team after surprise win vs. Warriors. I cant see Orlando putting up the same energy vs. OKC the day after. Wendell Carter is out for Orlando, he has been a great player for them over the last 3-4 games. 

Today Bet #54 Houston Rockets +9,5 cover vs. Dallas Mavericks, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Mavericks rest Luka today in order to be ready for the next game at Minnesota, which will be a revenge spot after that very heated last game with lots of questionable calls and fouls late in the game.

Against Houston, there is a great chance that Dinwiddie, Brunson and Powell can win that game by themselves. Add in Bullock and Finney-Smith and this Mavs team is on paper still a lot better than Rockets.

However, that Rockets team is very streaky because of all their 3-point shooting. The Mavericks had a long time a very good 3-point defense, but over the last 6-7 games that has changed, both in number of 3-point attempts as in success for the opponent.

Maybe it's fatigue, maybe it's lack of motivation, but if that trend continues that the Mavs are not one of the best 3-point defending teams in the league, Rockets hit enough 3s to keep the game close and cover.

 
Today Bet #55 LA Clippers beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 2,75, 1 unit

Clippers on a bad losing streak while 76ers have won their last game at Lakers without LeBron. However 76ers have played quite a lot of games lately and with the hotel stay at Los Angeles, I would expect several Philly guys to party instead of resting over the last 2 nights.

The more games you lose in the NBA, the more determined you become to stop the losing streak. Their last loss at Nuggets was actually not terrible, they just ran into a very good Nuggets team with great home advantage.

I do expect an easier game for the Clippers tonight, fresher and much more rested than 76ers and they will try to push the tempo right from the start. I am expecting a 100% effort by the Clippers, while I am unsure how motivated and fresh the 76ers are for this game. 

 
Today Bet #56 Washington Wizards beat Golden State Warriors, Odds 3,35, 1 unit

Coach Kerr still wants to practice different line-ups to prepare for the playoffs. While using those line-ups there are some which work well and some which simply suck. The result is secondary importance, it's more vital to him to find good combinations.

Wizards have decided to start Satoransky, a good decisions because he is better than Neto. With that change, the balance in the starting five of the Wizards has become better. Maybe now Porzingis can continue his better play.

Two teams who still have to try things out, that sounds like quite an experiment where anything can happen, thats why I like Wizards as big underdogs because their opponent is not focused primarily on winning. 

Today Bet #57 Charlotte Hornets beat Brooklyn Nets, Odds 3,25, 1 unit

Everybody proclaiming Nets already as a top favorite should be cognizant, that the defense is still a work in progress, especially while Simmonds is still out. Now they return after their big win at Miami and can now play with Kyrie in home games.

Now in my estimation, the offense skillz of Nets make defense very hard, but if you have good enough offense, you can make it a game vs. them. I hope that Hornets can continue with their pace and use the zone defense to at least make life a bit harder than usual for Nets to win.

Hornets have performed well this season when having rest advantage vs. the opponent at 10-7-1 ATS while Nets are 3-8-1 with no rest. You can play Hornets +6,5 to be safer, but tonight I will play both dogs ML and hoping one of them will win for profit. 

 
Today Bet #58 Orlando Magic +9,5 cover vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, Odds 2,0, 1 unit

I dont agree with this line because the Cavaliers injuries have made this team quite a bit tired over the last couple of weeks. They continue to fight to grind out games, but making them huge favorites to cover those lines, looks very hard to me with the limited amount of quality players.

For the last 19 games, they havent won by double-digits, even against bad opponents like Wizards. Orlando is a bad team, but not as tanking like Blazers. Whenever it's not a back-to-back situation, Markelle Fultz plays = better chances for Magic to cover. It looks as if Carter Jr. returns tonight, which would be a top boost for Magic.

It's simple with Orlando, their starting five loses points, then the bench unit around Fultz rallies, that happens constantly and leads to close losses. Tonight those +9,5 points should be enough for Magic to cover when we repeat that same pattern.

Today Bet #59 Sacramento Kings +13,5 cover vs. Miami Heat, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Heat shouldnt be that big of a favorite vs. ANY team right now, because their offense and 3-point shooting has absolutely going down in flames. Nobody seems to hit a shot + the defense also slipped. The Butler fiasco with coach Spoelstra and Haslem is just the icing on the cake.

Kings coach Gentry wont return next season, so he has no reason to tank, he wont benefit from a high pick anyways. What he can do, is playing hard with all the players he has left and win a few more games on his coaching resume to possibly get a good new job next year.

Until Miami shows me, that they have regained their shooting stroke + consistent defensive effort, I will fade them anytime they have to cover more than 9 points vs. any team besides Blazers. 

 
Today Bet #60 LA Lakers +11,5 cover vs. Dallas Mavericks, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Bookies assume LeBron is out tonight and I agree. If you can wait until lineups are announced, you can expect the odds even getting a little higher then if you are patient. Anyways I like the Lakers to cover tonight because despite the injury, the rest of the team has looked a little bit better over the last few games.

It's not pretty, but the Lakers have worked ok now with Howard and Gabriel together, having a bit more size, that could help with the rebounding vs. smallish Mavs team and force Kidd to play bigger than he wants to. 

Also vs. 76ers the team played hard until last second, that makes backdoor covers more probable when you got big lines to cover like tonight. Mavs are also not an offensive juggernaut, winning games by 30+ often. 

Despite LeBron out, Lakers are competently coached by Vogel who has seen improvement, so the line is just too high tonight, the Lakers without LEBron are not one of the 4-5 worst teams in the league. 

 
Today Bet #61 Cleveland Cavaliers beat Dallas Mavericks, Odds 2,15, 1 unit

Tonight I have 2 bets which have been moved by wise-guy money. I wish I had played especially Warriors earlier, because it was my favorite lean, but ok, that happens. Late in the season, there are always questionable motivational spots, so often the lines dont make much sense at first sight.

Now Cavs have lost even more playing quality with Mobley out. Dinwiddie sits out for the Mavs. Coach Kidd will again try to win this game while giving one of his players some extra rest for the playoffs. He knows that rest > home advantage in the playoffs.

Cavs have been a covering machine for almost all of the season. Especially at home they are not willing to give up games. If Mavs are only semi-motivated tonight, look for Cavs to again sneak out a close game at home.

Today Bet #62 Golden State Warriors beat Phoenix Suns, Odds 2,65, 1 unit

Unfortunately I didnt play Warrriors earlier today at 3,0+ odds, but wise-guys pumped a ton of money on the Warriors, due to 2 reasons. Both are enough for me to play Warriors tonight.

1. Suns basically have already clinched no.1 spot in the nba + home advantage for all season, so nothing to play for left.

2. Warriors match up the best among all nba teams vs. Suns because they are ok with their playing style and defending it. On the other hand, Suns have more work to do, defending the Warriors, when their motion offense gets going. It's not as easy as stopping a one dominant scorer type of team.

Today Bet #63 Oklahoma City Thunder +12,5 cover vs. Atlanta Hawks, Odds 2,0, 1 unit

Attention: Tre Mann is still questionable, if he plays, it's an even better bet. If not, you will get even better odds. If you can wait for line-ups, do so.

Hawks are strong at home, but stink on the road, that has been the main topic all season. With Galinari and Collins out, their margin for error goes down.

OKC has been top in the league in covering ATS because they get so huge spreads which their opponents cant cover late in the game because Thunder play hard until the end.

Even without Tre Mann, they managed to win at Blazers. He will be missed, if OKC wants to tank, but the rest is still capable enough, that they can always close the gap late in the game to cover +12,5.

 
Today Bet #64 Oklahoma City Thunder beat Detroit Pistons, Odds 2,65, 1 unit

Super dangerous spot for Pistons, after winning vs. 76ers in a very emotional match, they need to be ready on the back-to-back as a favorite travelling to OKC.

Olynyk and Bagley are two casualties of that trip, both out and who knows how tired the others feel after a super inspiring effort vs. Harden and Embiid. Suddenly they are now on the road facing a team full of unknown OKC players.

OKC thunder roster is now absolutely barren with even Tre Mann out. However, Pistons team is still too young and inexperienced to easily crush those bad teams on the road. Value should be on OKC when Pistons cant yet be trusted as favorites. 

Today Bet #65 Minnesota Timberwolves beat Denver Nuggets, Odds 2,35, 1 unit

Fade spot for the Nuggets who were on a road trip where they got wins, but they really had to work hard vs. really poor teams to get the wins. I am not happy about their performances lately and those wins were not convincing at all.

Timberwolves ran into the Raptors in last game where I bet on the Raptors because of their length to bother them. Against Denver it will be a much easier life for the Timberwolves to get their shots off and score. 

Give me Minnesota to stop the 2-game losing streak with a good offensive effort especially from 3-point land. Whenever you have 2 playoff teams of similar caliber playing each other in regular season, I always back the team on a losing streak because of their higher motivation to stop the rut.

 
Today Bet #66 Charlotte Hornets beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

With Coach Rivers criticizing Harden, I would expect Harden to say his hamstring is bad again and sitting out. That would mean that again Embiid has to shoulder all responsibility, not the best circumstances for a good effort.

Sure that could be enough to still beat the Hornets, but with 76ers not really caring where they land in the seedings because of wanting to avoid Nets subconciously, they will be ok being somewhere in 3-6th seeding spot. Being 2nd or 1st would be a danger for facing Nets when they win their play-in game.

Hornets play their usual style, running like crazy and playing zone defense. Versus a semi-motivated philly team which might play only at half effort and doesnt want to run back on defense, their winning percentage should be closer to 40% = 2,5 fair odds. Anything 2,5+ odds is worth betting for me. 

 
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