Dota 2 Singapore Major

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anonymousapple

anonymousapple

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Had a pretty decent playoffs day 1, i did message kim last night about how overpriced/juicy the odds for Secret and LGD was (unfortunately he didnt read on time) but somehow forgot to post here. 

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Tomorrow im tentatively going for Neon +1.5, Vici straight up (sorry Kim, liquid doesn't stand a chance), Aster straight up and Quincy +1.5. I will place the handicap bets first but the straight ups are subject to change because i tend to do live bets for them after draft. Did LGD pre game because they were extremely overpriced.

As for why, Fnatic played extremely bad today and based on Neon's form they should be able to take a game. Doubt Liquid will be able to replicate beating Vici again, considering this is LB playoffs. Thunder Predator is just overpriced because of how they performed recently but i wouldnt be surprised to see them KO first round in LB. As for quincy, NA dota best dota and VP played like crap against LGD today, too comfortable.

 
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Quite fun this esports betting.

Have been betting on DOTA and LOL.

Don't really know what I am doing but it makes the games very enjoyable to watch, guess that is the case with any sport you have money on.

Any excuse to gamble.

Esports will be the primary sport category in a generation or two, the potential size of the player pool is insane compared to any physical endeavours.

 
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Very well done buddy! I'm so bummed out that I missed this, think all your bets are great so far and can't belive they're giving these prices, Secret -1.5 at even money!? Are you betting on Pinnacle? I need to bet somewhere where they won't limit me for betting on e-sports. Any bets for tomorrow?

I think Secret -1.5 @ 2.42 is great value, will see how much I can get in on it

Also surprised to see EG as favorites against IG, I'm keen on taking IG in that game, possibly even IG -1.5

VP also seems to be favorites against TP, I think that's wrong and looking to see the odds but would be TP in that matchup

 
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LetsGiveItASpin said:
Very well done buddy! I'm so bummed out that I missed this, think all your bets are great so far and can't belive they're giving these prices, Secret -1.5 at even money!? Are you betting on Pinnacle? I need to bet somewhere where they won't limit me for betting on e-sports. Any bets for tomorrow?

I think Secret -1.5 @ 2.42 is great value, will see how much I can get in on it

Also surprised to see EG as favorites against IG, I'm keen on taking IG in that game, possibly even IG -1.5

VP also seems to be favorites against TP, I think that's wrong and looking to see the odds but would be TP in that matchup
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I use a variety of bookies that hasn't restricted me yet, will bet on whichever has the best odds at that moment and yeah Pinnacle is on that list. Bet365 is pretty good for live betting on esports. 

For tomorrows game im going to place handicaps on Secret -1.5. If /when Vici -1.5 hits above evens i will go for that as well. If i had to choose i would lean towards Thunder Predator because of how well they performed today and how bad VP performed today (even though they won the series 2-1). The EG vs IG should be the hardest to choose and i will bet all 2-3 maps live after i see the draft (although i am leaning towards EG), the others im pretty comfortable with pre-game.

 
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anonymousapple said:
I use a variety of bookies that hasn't restricted me yet, will bet on whichever has the best odds at that moment and yeah Pinnacle is on that list. Bet365 is pretty good for live betting on esports. 

For tomorrows game im going to place handicaps on Secret -1.5. If /when Vici -1.5 hits above evens i will go for that as well. If i had to choose i would lean towards Thunder Predator because of how well they performed today and how bad VP performed today (even though they won the series 2-1). The EG vs IG should be the hardest to choose and i will bet all 2-3 maps live after i see the draft (although i am leaning towards EG), the others im pretty comfortable with pre-game.
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Will be fun, you watching anything live? If so we could possibly go discord :D  

 
dirtystack said:
Quite fun this esports betting...

Esports will be the primary sport category in a generation or two, the potential size of the player pool is insane compared to any physical endeavours.
Click to expand...
All of this.
I have followed some podcasts called 'the business of betting'. Recommended listening imo.
The Pinnacle Director of Trade seems to agree with you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed0JK8gtdNA 

anonymousapple said:
I use a variety of bookies that hasn't restricted me yet, will bet on whichever has the best odds at that moment and yeah Pinnacle is on that list. Bet365 is pretty good for live betting on esports. 

For tomorrows game im going to place handicaps on Secret -1.5. If /when Vici -1.5 hits above evens i will go for that as well. If i had to choose i would lean towards Thunder Predator because of how well they performed today and how bad VP performed today (even though they won the series 2-1). The EG vs IG should be the hardest to choose and i will bet all 2-3 maps live after i see the draft (although i am leaning towards EG), the others im pretty comfortable with pre-game.
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Pinnacle and Bet365 are currently not available for Dutch.
Bet365 might become a new entrant to our market when it is regulated per September/October this year, and lots of others may be benched by our Gaming Commission.

@anonymousapple just out of curiosity, do you only bet out of expertise and gut-feeling or even fading the public against big-name teams that may be overpriced, or is your betting also based on models?
Even if the models are not based on in-game or player tendencies and  stats but only based on historical results.
No need to respond to if you don't want to of course. 

 
vanHooff said:
All of this.
I have followed some podcasts called 'the business of betting'. Recommended listening imo.
The Pinnacle Director of Trade seems to agree with you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed0JK8gtdNA 

Pinnacle and Bet365 are currently not available for Dutch.
Bet365 might become a new entrant to our market when it is regulated per September/October this year, and lots of others may be benched by our Gaming Commission.

@anonymousapple just out of curiosity, do you only bet out of expertise and gut-feeling or even fading the public against big-name teams that may be overpriced, or is your betting also based on models?
Even if the models are not based on in-game or player tendencies and  stats but only based on historical results.
No need to respond to if you don't want to of course. 
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I factor in recent performance and their playstyle. Team A's aggressive playstyle might be effective against Team B but easily punished by Team C. I mostly do live bets and only do handicaps/straight ups if im comfortable with the price. Secret -1.5 (vs TP) at 2.0/2.2 was imo extremely overpriced due to how overhyped Thunder Predator was based on their recent performances but people seem to forgot Secret is one of if not the strongest team in the world. 

I like to think the draft plays an important role in determining the outcome of the match. The lanes matchup and teamfight potential etc (Dota 2's Dota plus uses a decent Machine Learning system to estimate the probability of a team winning based on draft/matchups). I have roughly 15000 hours in this game and at my peak i was top 20 in my region/top 100 in the world out of the entire player base so i am pretty confident in my analytical skills of this game.

 
As expected, IG couldn't do anything against EG and their Alchemist (1000 GPM end game with 0 deaths).

EG Game 2 ✔️✔️

Hopefully Kim fell asleep and didn't bet on iG 😆

 
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