You can simulate this and figure it out yourself. Get some poker chips and a soft but flat surface - usually it’s a wood base covered with a thick 2-3 mm piece of leather which is covered with a felt cloth.
Drop the chips on it, some will land standing up now and then.
Work in a casino and it happens every now and then on the gaming tables. Happens most frequently at the cash desk with people cashing out as the leather cover there is much thicker.
Goggled it, the odds are 1 in 6000 in a hard surface- in a soft surface it’s much lower and the softer the surface is the more frequently it will happen.