Casino Statistics RTP

Status
Not open for further replies.
R

RTPCheck

New member
Hello all,

First of, what you are about to read is most likely all in my head :) And second, if this has already been done just ignore this post. 

After years of spinning slots I think I'v noticed a pattern (Yes... As I said its probably just in my head). And I know this has been up for discussion time after time. But again and again I just notice the same thing. #1 after deposit, quite quick a "bigger" win, and then it just dies of. #2 When I'm really close (about 5%-10% left) to run out of money, then a few "bigger wins" right before the money is gone. And this correspond with the data from my latest sessions, and could ofc just be me. But maybe someone else have noticed the same?

I have quite the extensive knowledge of compiling data. And now whit GDPR it would be quite easy to check a larger amount of data.

So I just wanted to check if someone would be interessted in a experiment like this. For instance at LeoVegas you as a player can request to download your data by going to "profile" -> "request my data". And at the same time if streamers would send their data (anonymous ofc), then we could also compare and answer the ever so hot question about "streamers luck".

I primarily want to check if there is a peak in wins after deposits or when your money is about to run out. But a study like this would be able to show so much more.

I will also compare all data to spins for "play money", and do my best to compare with spins for bonus money, where I'v also noticed a different pattern.

If this has been done already, please provide me with a link so I can drop this once and for all :) But if people are interested I would set up a anonymous link for sending your data and then put together a report for everyone to look at.

What do you think?

(posting to different forums)

 
RTPCheck said:
Hello all,

First of, what you are about to read is most likely all in my head :) And second, if this has already been done just ignore this post. 

After years of spinning slots I think I'v noticed a pattern (Yes... As I said its probably just in my head). And I know this has been up for discussion time after time. But again and again I just notice the same thing. #1 after deposit, quite quick a "bigger" win, and then it just dies of. #2 When I'm really close (about 5%-10% left) to run out of money, then a few "bigger wins" right before the money is gone. And this correspond with the data from my latest sessions, and could ofc just be me. But maybe someone else have noticed the same?

I have quite the extensive knowledge of compiling data. And now whit GDPR it would be quite easy to check a larger amount of data.

So I just wanted to check if someone would be interessted in a experiment like this. For instance at LeoVegas you as a player can request to download your data by going to "profile" -> "request my data". And at the same time if streamers would send their data (anonymous ofc), then we could also compare and answer the ever so hot question about "streamers luck".

I primarily want to check if there is a peak in wins after deposits or when your money is about to run out. But a study like this would be able to show so much more.

I will also compare all data to spins for "play money", and do my best to compare with spins for bonus money, where I'v also noticed a different pattern.

If this has been done already, please provide me with a link so I can drop this once and for all :) But if people are interested I would set up a anonymous link for sending your data and then put together a report for everyone to look at.

What do you think?

(posting to different forums)
Click to expand...
It's all in your head. 

1. Casinos can't adjust RTP for any player. Either they "change" it for all or for no-one (example Play N Go offers different RTP versions to casinos).
2. RTP works in Casinos / Game provider advantage, so they already have an edge over you as a player.
3. There is ZERO patterns when it comes to slots (feel free to find research on google about this, how gambling affects different parts of brain in many ways). Each spin is independent event, slots don't have "memory" of your balance, your previous loses or wins.
4. Game providers are audited by many regulatory bodies and individual certification labs to ensure fairness for the players. If they get busted that they have messed with the games in non-compliant ways, the game provider who did that can just close the whole business as there will be massive fines and news all over the place.

Case closed :)  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hey Skylined87,

I get what you are saying, and as I said it's all most likely in my head, even though I seem to see a clear pattern.

But... I dont think anyone has a clear picture of what is OK and not when it comes to slots. For example, you and everyone else know that bonus games are predetermined. Something that is proven, and is a way for slots to trick the player in to believing they where close to a big win. And that is just something that is OK for them to do for some reason.

And take "Jammin Jars" for another example. Jammin Jars tricks the player to feel like every spin is unique, while in fact each spin is "pre made" and stored in a database, and works more like a scratch ticket. So, it seems that there is no law against pretending to be "random" in that way either.

Another example is where many slots show the last 2-3 reels containing lots of wilds, but that should match the amount of times you get the FIRST 2-3 reels with wilds. And anyone who have played slots for a long time knows thats not the case. So, it seems it's legal for a slot to make the player believe that they were close to a big win in that way to.

There is just so much that seems OK regarding slots, it's really beond me. So I dont think it's that crazy to imagine there are other things they could do legally, for example if they found some loophole.

It would just be a fun experiment to try out. But that requires that many players provides their data, so if I'm the only one curious there is not much to do :)

 
It’s likely just confirmation bias.

We all looks for patterns and remember anything that confirms our pattern., discard anything that doesn’t.
 

It’s the same for me at work, always getting told we let people win at the start then fleece them, got to get them hooked. 
Except when someone gets to the end of their money and gets it all back, then it’s because we had to make it interesting and stressful for them because that’s our job. 

the above often comes from the same player despite the contradictions which are ignored by said player.
They will sit there playing or not, contradictions themselves all day, and always without fail “I knew that was going to happen” “It’s always like that” “Everytime” 

Take whatever confirms your thoughts in the moment, disregard everything else. Humans are just a dumb animal and, for the majority, adulthood is a self manufactured illusion.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dirtystack,

Well lets take your logic on one of the examples I took in my previous post.

A player tries to get to a bonus game again and again, and the player feels like they should have a 33% chance turning up a big win under one of the 3 rocks in the bonus game.

If that player came on here writing a post about how the bonus game feels rigged you wouldn't say its "confirmation bias". It's a clear and confirmed pattern, but this time you would most likely just tell the player to accept the pattern, becouse it is just something that is OK for slots to do.

But if you diddn't know about predetermined bonuses, I imagine you this time probably would have written a similar answar as you just did to that player also.

Again, if there are many instances where its OK for the slot to do stuff like this, which we all seem to accept. Why couldn't there be other things we don't know about?

So imo. it would just have been a fun experiment. With todays AI technology such as neural networks and deep learning we would be able to make a model of how the slots work. It would require a lot of data, but now with GDPR it would be quite easy to obtain.

 
It’s not a big secret how slots work, you don’t need any kind of neural network to understand it. It’s not complicated.

there is no big overarching design that determines how a slot will behave for any particular individual.

slots, what you see in the screen, is all a visual representation of the number that is returned to you once you pay the price of a bet. Jamming jars is not unique in any way, it’s just that it’s board is so complicated and they have x million ways to visually represent the win to you. I’ve played it a lot and I’ve had the same wins several times, I’ve had the same win as daskele has in his intro screen albeit at a lower stake.

You are trying to figure out a problem that doesn’t exist, to figure out the behaviour of slots, they don’t exhibit any kind of behaviour other then what they are programmed to exhibit, and that programming is not complicated or secret.
 

You claim to use “my logic” well, let’s try your logic. 
if you feel when you deposit you initially get a big win then slowly dribble your money away and get a few big wins once near the end of you balance, why, don’t you use this pattern you have observed to your advantage and do this.

Deposit and get your initial big win then withdraw. 
move next casino, repeat, cash all the profit out.

You would do this, then realise it wasn’t working and rationalise that as the casinos noticing what you are doing and rigging it against you by getting rid of that initial win. Another forum post with your observation and a load of confirmation bias.

Its not the pattern of slots you should spend energy figuring, their patterns are simplistic, people are much more complicated.

Its not a big secretive industry with well guarded secrets and the people who work in the business are not paid enough to keep secrets.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Again, if you diddn't know about predetermined bonuses you would probably have said the same thing about that, to "figure out a problem that doesn't exist".

Lets say this is the first time any of us played slots, we all would have thought that the bonuses were legit. But a neural network would quickly show that they are rigged.

About jamming jars, yes I know the reason for saving the wins in a database is because its a complicated slot. So as you said, the visuals of the slots dossen't need to represent the randomness a player who plays it would expect.

I'v said again and again that it's most likely not the case about the pattern I see. But it would have been a fun experiment to process a large amount of slot/deposit data, it probably wont show anything on the pattern I discribed earlier, but maybe it would show something else we havent thought about.

So I just wanted to check if anyone else would be interested in the experiment. At worst (and most likely) I would just have spent a lot of time unnecessarily. But even if it would have shown some minor little thing about "something" I think it would have been cool finding it.

Something like this could also be used as a unbiased study just to give players a better understanding and also decresease the amount of "confirmation bias" players have.

 
You seem determined. Hope you find something. 
 

 The slot providers could counteract anything you discover by basing the calculation of outcomes on a random number generator, thus making future results independent of any prior results.
 

Sorry if seemed argumentative, playing a couple of most spin tournamentS and doing 100k +spins a day for a few days now. Guess I’m a bit worn out.

 
True random numbers do not exist in software only programs, those are pseudorandom and based on algorithms which (unlike everyone here believes) can be manipulated. It all depends on whether or not the providers use hardware RNG which i personally doubt. Either way the house edge is already enough to make it profitable for the companies and as an average joe you will lose everything in the long run. Now i'm a skeptic and i've been in the world of corporate greed (and i know how malta works) so it's anyone's guess. All i know is that money makes people and companies do the most disgusting and vile things.

I sympathize though. I've been on a constant losing streak for over 3 years now online and offline. The loss pattern also seem to have changed. Where you used to have gotten some entertainment value these days it's completly gone for the average joe. 

All i can say is try to quit. It only has benefits. It's kind of the same with smoking it only has negative effects absolutly zero positive ones. Gambling is exactly the same.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You said:

fter years of spinning slots I think I'v noticed a pattern (Yes... As I said its probably just in my head). And I know this has been up for discussion time after time. But again and again I just notice the same thing. #1 after deposit, quite quick a "bigger" win, and then it just dies of. #2 When I'm really close (about 5%-10% left) to run out of money, then a few "bigger wins" right before the money is gone. And this correspond with the data from my latest sessions, and could ofc just be me. But maybe someone else have noticed the same?

I completely agree with you. I have experienced this several thousand times. That with RTP and random stuff, it's just bullshit

 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top