Sunflakes betting challenge in TI7 Dota 2

Day 3 round 3


Team Liquid


TNC


BO2


Liquid to win


2,37


€50,00


Liquid looks great this tourny and giving these odds for a win is a bargain. Raven and KUKU might take one game from them but not two but x2 bet is superlow so i think this is valuetown


EG


Infamous


BO2


Infamous to win at least one


3,4


€25,00


EG is looking strong but Infamous has been winning a map from better teams. EG also has RTZ who has not been looking impressive and they often underestimate their opponent. Skip or go for a low yolobet.


IGV


Team Empire


BO2


IGV to win 2-0


2,37


€50,00


My argument for this bet is that Empire loost 0-2 vs LGD, IGV won 2-0 vs LGD. Could get risk if the Empire strikes back the second game

 
C9


Exec


BO2


Exec to win at least one


1,9


€25,00


Important game for both to not get 9th, HR who is last for the moment went 1-1 vs exec and havent met C9 yet. i think exec has one of these games.


LFY


DC


BO2


LFY to win


1,8


€50,00


LFY looks superstrong, glad i predicted before TI7 to end up top2. Not much of a analysis that has to be made, just check them play dota.


Newbee


HR


BO2


Newbee to win


1,5


€50,00


See my LGD vs infamous bet above, should be an easy 2-0.


OG


IG


BO2


IG to win


5,5


€50,00


Hardest bet this game but i think the odds are skewed towards OG because they are from the western sceene and IG is from asia. IF IG wins vs C9, both OG and IG are 6-4 in the group at the 4th and 5th place so both teams will try hard but i rather bet on IG due to the odds. This is also an imporant descision coming into day 4. OG is meeting exen and LFY. IG will only meet VP so the result of this game is even more important for IG since they can only get 2 more points tomorrow, OG can get four.

 
Day 3 round 5

My heart hurts irl  so ill be short so i can watch the games from bed.


EG


LGD


BO2


LGD to win 2-0


5


€50,00


Value bet, LGD can beat EG (same thought as OG vs IG but that did not go through this time)


IGV


Fnatic


BO2


IGV to win 2-0


2,5


€50,00


Fnatic plays bad, IGV is holding megas vs Empire for the moment... Should be an easy 2-0


Team Liquid


Team Empire


BO2


Team Liquid to win


1,61


$50,00


TNC took a game off Liquid, not sure if this was a great  bet i did since if TNC can take a game of TL,  so can Empire but i believe in my water boys


TNC


Infamous


BO2


TNC to win


1,57


$50,00


TNC should have this

 
Day 4

Went good yesterday 10 wins out of 19 games and €227,75 profit.

For how the groups can go, i refer to this post Also, please make your own analysis since what im stating below abotu seeding might get incorrect sometimes.

Round 1

C9 vs DC Tie

C9 needs to win at least 3 games to get to main event and they meet HR later on. I think they can snatch a game from DC and then they win vs HR. DC needs to win all of their games and hope VP and Newbee atl east losing 2 so i think they are set where they are

Betting tie 1-1 for 1,95 €50

IG vs HR

IG needs to win 2-0 to get into a tiebreaker with OG losing one game. I see this as a possiblity, also HR has a chance but they are looking very slim.

IG to win for 1,45 €50

Newbee vs VP Tie

I see these teams as very even in the groupstage To quote the link above "Newbee and VP both can ensure their UB if they win all of their games, 3 wins would ensure them at least a tiebreaker for 4th place, maybe higher".

Betting tie 1-1 for 2 in odds €50

OG vs Exec

Exec has a very very low chance to go into tiebreaker vs HR but i do not see it happening. OG will need to win this and i believe they will even if Exec could take a map of OG. Could avodi this bet.

OG to win 1,53 €50

Will editting this post once i put in more bets. You can find my spreadsheet here

Round 2

EG vs Fnatic

Watch the link above for potential outcome, i think EG has this one easy.

EG to win 2-0 1,45 €50

LGD vs TNC

TNC has to win at least one game to be guarantee UB and i think they can do it vs LGD. TNC played great yesterday and better odds on tie than +1,5.

Tie for odds 2 €50

Team Liquid vs Team Secret

I give slight edge to Liquid. Will either end in a win for Liquid or tie but its hard to say, could avoid this one aswell.

Tie for 2,15 €50

 
Round 3

Cloud 9 vs Hr

Cloud 9 seems to be winning 2-0 vs DC for the moment. This means HR is out of main event so the game does not mean anything for them. IFor C9 it means better seeding

C9 to win 1,75 in odds €50

Newbee vs DC

I do not thin any of the teams has anything to really play for except DCs seeding (DC has to win vs NB and OG has to lose all games). Still think the odds are good for NB and DC was underperforming vs C9 (lost that bet)

Newbee to win for 1,9 €50

OG vs LFY

LFY has nothing to play for, OG has.

OG to win, 3,25 €50

VP vs IG

Important game for both and i see them as even. I can see IG taking a game from VP but not more.

+1,5 on IG (win at least one game for odds 1,53 €50

 
Main event, day one.

For the moment im in profitville but only 50€. Here are my bets for tomorrow, most are yolos and the reasoning behind it is that its many BO1s, anything can happen then and you get no second chances.


Team Liquid


IG


BO3


Over 2,5 games played


2,1


€50,00


I put TL as favorite 70/30 but i really think IG can take a game from them. Better odds for more than 2,5 games than asian handicap.


Newbee


EG


BO3


Over 2,5 games played


1,95


€50,00


Even more even here than the game above so if you want to choose one bet, go for this one since i see this really going into three games by looking at how they have been playing


Team Secret


Exec


BO1


Exec to win


2,95


€50,00


I think this game is more even than most think. The Pinoys can suprise any team including Secret. 


C9


Team Empire


BO1


Team Empire to win


2,05


€50,00


This can go either way. C9 plays fun and risky dota and Empire plays risky aswell. Its a coinflip and then i go will Empire because i think Reso is a better carry than fiftEE.


OG


Infamous


BO1


Infamous to win


3,3


€50,00


Both OG and Infamous has had their shining points and now they are all in. Going Infamous for the odds since  the peruvians can win against any team and im s ure they would like to beat out the major masters.


IGV


DC


BO1


DC to win


2,05


€50,00


DC played better in the end of the groupstages and IGV is very inconsistant. This bet could be avoided but i believe in the mixed team rather than the worst chinese team (they are still good tho)

 
Main event day 2

Short prediction today since im busy tonight. Profit occurs yesterday even if i lost 2 BO1 (was expected). Chinese teams were stronger than people thought and i think this will be the trend today aswell. My first two bets are pretty risky but pretty sure at least one of them will happen. Good odds on Secret to win and i see Liquid and Secret being pretty even for the moment.


LFY



TNC



BO3



LFY to win 2-0



2



€50,00



 


LGD



VP



BO3



LGD to win 2-0



3,2



€50,00



 


Team Liquid



Team Secret



BO3



Team Secret to win



2,95



€50,00



 


EG



Team Empire



BO3



No good odds for the moment, might add a bet later on.



 


€0,00



 


 
Main event day 3

Yesterday did not go as expected, havent seen Empire - EG yet but that result was suprising and VP looked very very strong. Also i thought my team secret bet would kick in since they won first game.


TNC


OG


BO2


TNC to win


2,55


€50,00


Rematch from last year but OG has a different team. I think OG wont do the same mistake as last year but TNC plays with their hearts and pure agro so i think its value for the odds.


LGD


DC


BO2


LGD to win 2-0


1,85


€50,00


Even if LGD lost yesterday, i still see them as a better team and DC has been looking impressive from time to time but i think they go out this round.


Newbee


IG


BO2


Newbee to win 2-0


2,6


€50,00


Woul bet draw if i could but good oods for Newbee taking it 2-0


LFY


VP


BO2


LFY to win 2-0


3


€50,00


A mentioned before, VP played really really well yesterday but so did LFY. In fact i would say LFY have been more impressive and consistant. This game can go any way so its a risky bet but i think 3 in odds is great for a team like LFY.

 
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