I can't believe for 1 second that the sort of bankroll needed to play this high would have come from non-gambling sources in the first instance. There is just no way someone makes millions (business, getting lucky with Crypto, inheritance) and thinks to try and build a channel by playing full time 40+ hours a week on high roller slots. So the only way this would be funded if it is legit is via the affiliate income.
I Wouldn't be so skeptical to this,. Or well I think you treat it as an either or, but in most cases it will be both. To get started you need some sort of bank roll, and it makes sense that for some that will come from Crypto. To use two slot streamers, ProdigyDKK and Ayezee, they both started with gaming skins a long time ago, and if they are already trading and dealing in digital currency like many years ago, it makes sense that they would get into crypto as well, and anyone who got into crypto like 3-4-5 years ago now has a sizable bankroll. I myself know (not personally but in my circle) who are just millionaires out of nowhere from crypto. Also makes sense that people who are attracted to gambling would also be attracted to crypto because it is gambling in a sense.
And if they already have been streaming and like gambling, it also makes sense that they would get into gamble streaming. And they didn't start out doing $50+ bets just bankrolling by crypto. But at lower stakes and as the stream has been growing they have increased the stakes.
One thing people are overlooking here is that streaming as a content and probably online gambling as an activity (in particularly crypto casinos I imagine) have exploded these last few years, I imagine in particular since Corona came around and people have been stuck at home, so it makes sense that the revenue and stakes have exploded with this.
But how much do they haul in? If it a case of £250k pa and a playing eV of -£100k then sure, thinking that the likes of Ayezee, Train, Foss etc can bring so many more players / higher rollers to a casino as to be able to afford the jump from mostly £2-£5 stakes to regular £500-£1,000 stakes seems impossible.
But if the Kim, Nick, Bandit etc are all rocking the millionaire lifestyle and bringing in 7 or even 8 figure annual affiliate incomes from their viewer's losses - but are opting to do so at the lowest risk so staying at mid-stake play - then it suddenly doesn't seem as unreasonable that the Crypto players are able to be clearing £1m+ income per month and, in an attempt to be more noticed in a saturated market, are taking a shot that higher stakes will draw more sign-ups and, presumably, draw in some whales.
I don't know the people you mention so I imagine they don't stream on twitch, googling some it seems they mostly post videos and stream on youtube? Just taking a name I have sort of heard of here rocknrolla he is like 1/10th the size of Ayezee (based on viewcount of last stream and views last 30 days on youtube videos), ayezee does post videos but I think it is a fairly small part of his advertisement value compared to his stream (I know he said before he gets paid $5k per video).
But there are a few more factors at play here than just audience size. First of all Crypto casinos are available to a much bigger audience. A very large chunk (possibly the majority) of the people who watch this content will be in a demographic that can't use whatever offers they have, but the same is not true for crypto casinos.
I can't say i know this for sure but it also makes sense to me that the crypto casinos have a much higher profit margin because of tax reasons, I imagine if you are to be a licensed casino in UK for example theres going to be a lot of taxes etc but the crypto casinos obviously just set up in the most tax beneficial place.
One finally point I don't really see anyone mention but it should be quite obvious, the streamers obviously negotiate how much they get paid, and them playing raw balance is going to increase how much they can ask for.
If a streamer has an -EV of gambling per month of $900k, if the casino then pays him $900k they are getting free advertisement.
Again ayezee is an example of this, a few months ago he was playing using deposit bonuses. These deposit bonuses are profitable for the players so he would play with deposit bonuses until he gets a good win and can clear the wager, then cash out some and go degen with some on high bets in hopes of winning big.
This was what he used to do, but rollbit wanted him to play raw instead so they renegotiated a deal where he instead gets a much higher monthly fee and he can play raw. Obviously how much he gets paid is going to be correlated with how much he is expected to lose (based on RTP/wagered), and then on top of that there would be some payment for advertisement.
again just to re-iterate my point, if the casino only pays the player enough that their gambling has an expected return of breakeven, they are getting completely free advertisement (obviously there would be swings in one direction or another but thats gambling, expected value is what matters.)
Anyway I don't 100% agree with all of your points but I appreciated a well thought out post