NoLimit City needs to help us understand...

G

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Guest
So I did 100 mystery bonus buys (lucky draw) on Dead Canary on $0.20 stakes.

To buy a 0DX bonus cost 68x ($13.20)
To buy a bonus with at least 1DX guaranteed cost 500x ($100)
To buy a bonus which could give you 0DX, 1DX, 2DX or 3DX cost 284x ($56.80)

Here's the results from my 100 buys:

image.png

So, if roughly 3/4's of the outcomes are no gold canaries then how do they determine the 284x lucky draw buy.
If I assume that every gold canary = 500x, then the expected value of that buy is $44.93 (224.6x) and trust me, more gold canaries does not mean bigger wins (EVER).

Would love to hear everyone else's opinions - and get someone from NLC to help us understand.

I emailed them a month ago, they never responded - so figured I'd go to the forums then.

Cheers,
D

 
Last edited:
Slotspinner said:
Did you expect 100 to be a big enough sample size? You might wanna add a couple zeros to start seeing results in line with the odds
Click to expand...
No I didn't but it was what I could afford.
I'm a machine learning engineer FYI, so I know about small sample size bias etc - but that's not what I was asking.

For all their other games they show the odds of getting a specific bonus, and the bonus buy cost then equates to the expected value.

This is the only one where I couldn't see it making sense...

 
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