Betslips on Scudamore - Probability!

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Kimdk87

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Letsgiveitaspin was thinking about running Scudamore in the background chasing the biggest win. I wanted to find out if it was a good idea.

As far as I remember, it pays 1292x if you go for the shitload of wilds on 80 spins. I was wondering how many spins you needed to have a 50% chance of winning the million SEK, if you bet 800 sek. 

If the casino is giving 1292 x, the real odds of getting it has to be higher. Lets say 1/1300. Then how many spins to get a 50% chance?

1-(1299/1300)^x = 0,5

x= 900,745 --> 901 spins

So according to my calculation, you need 901 spins to have a 50% chance.

That means about 720000 SEK to get a 50% chance.

I am not 100% sure this is the way to calculate it. Let me know if you agree or disagree

 
Tried to win the big one myself a few times and it seems the wilds get removed from the reels.  When your not using a payslip the magicly appear again in full reels multiple times. Now these slots are supposed to be totally random but this slot shows that it isn't really that random after all. The reels change when using the slip 100% so that tells me if your using the payslip that your next 80 spins are already predetermined.

 
It does seem that wilds disapear from the reels when you have the bet slip active, but I have hit several huge wins on the side bet. They have all occured when I got the horse shoe wild feature. I'm sure it's possible without this however.

 
Dbaird123 said:
Tried to win the big one myself a few times and it seems the wilds get removed from the reels.  When your not using a payslip the magicly appear again in full reels multiple times. Now these slots are supposed to be totally random but this slot shows that it isn't really that random after all. The reels change when using the slip 100% so that tells me if your using the payslip that your next 80 spins are already predetermined.
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Well, it really should not be necessary for them to make it predetermined. The math behind it seems pretty simple. Calculate the odds of hitting a wild on any reel, find out what the probability of hitting a certain amount in 80 spins and make the odds from there. 

So I really dont think it is predetermined. Mainly cause I cant see any reason for them to make it predetermined. Except if they want to lie about the probability of getting a wild symbol and make them appear more often in the normal base game luring people to try their luck on a betslip.

That sounds illegal to me.

 
Dbaird123 said:
If you play try 80 spins without bet slip count em up against 80 spins using a betslip.
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That is just way too small a sample to claim anything.

Anyway, this thread was not meant to accuse netent of anything. It really was only to do some math on the probabilities

 
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I think that if you buy 1292 / 0,963 (the RTP) = 1342 bet slips the probability of getting it is around 66%, hence somewhere around 950 bet slips seems where you should have the 50/50 but maybe someone more familiar with combinatorics would get this more spot on :P   You'd have to do 76,000 spins which would take a while but possibly something we could grind in the background for a few days :D  About the changing of reels I don't think they do it, they basically calculate the odds of you getting something whatever outcome and then allowing you to bet on it. Downside is that the bet slip is 96.x% and the regular spins are 96.11%, hence even though playing the regular game on a low stake only going for the big bet slips it will cost you quite a bit on average.

 
Kimdk87 said:
That is just way too small a sample to claim anything.

Anyway, this thread was not meant to accuse netent of anything. It really was only to do some math on the probabilities
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I didn't mean just once lol try it a few times and its not a witch hunt just my own personal experience of the game so far, I could be wrong or just unlucky but hey won't stop me from trying.

 
Dbaird123 said:
I didn't mean just once lol try it a few times and its not a witch hunt just my own personal experience of the game so far, I could be wrong or just unlucky but hey won't stop me from trying.
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And I didnt mean just once either. A few is not enough either. Not at all. We need lots and lots of run throughs to even start speculating. But you might be right, I have no clue.

 
To get a decent sample, you need to go through it lots and lots and lots and lots..... the providers probably have billions of spins to get the rtp exact.

 
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