Sunflakes betting challenge in TI7 Dota 2

Sunflake

New member
Hello CasinoGrounds

Some of you might know this but International 7 is starting this week and it is the biggest e-sports event of the year. I want to try my limits and give myself a challenge to see how far I can get betting wise but also keep you guys updated on how it goes.  This tournament is a good place to start watching the game if you are interested.

My Background: I have been playing Dota for nearly 10 years and I have a true passion for the game, both playing and watching. I’ve always liked betting and I made a name for myself TI5 when I turned $100 to roughly $950 (thanks to an underdog that went far) and I also turned one arcana (worth $40) to Dota items worth $3400. I’ve been on the low on betting for a while and want to do it properly this years tournament.

My setup: I will deposit €1000 and bet between 2,5 to 15% (small, mid or big) depending on my confidence and risk of the bet. I’ll post daily of the bets I will do, a little text for each team and give an update on how it went the last day, also note that my post might get edited if I adjust a bet but I always refer to my spreadsheet.

I will also stream myself casting the games i have betted on in a casual tone while communicating with the viewers on the bets wagered, both with or against me, on my twitch channel www.twitch.tv/sunflake My old childhood friend Letsgiveitaspin will join me on the stream aswell assisting with the cast.

Since many games are played at the same time (4 matches, 5 different times, 20 matchups per day), its hard to keep track of every team. In the start I will probably choose four teams for each group to watch more closely and adjust where I find the most value.

My spreadsheet: The thought behind this is to keep tabs of all my bets and see the progress during the tournament. It will be under development during the tournament and it will contain which team I bet on, odds and statistics. This is also the safest and best way to see what I actually betted on.

You can find the spreadsheet at google docs here if you want to watch my progress.

I have some more editing to do with the document and feel free to make a copy of it if you want to use it.

Goal: My goal is to tread lightly in the beginning to see the status of the teams and watch all highlights of the first day and adjust accordingly. Another goal is to get visits from some new viewers that things betting is as fun and exciting as me on Twitch. Moneywise, I would like to turn my 1000 to 2000€ which is think is doable with my experience.

Thanks for reading and wish me luck.

/Sunflake

www.twitch.tv/sunflake

 
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Day 1 for groupstage

Starting bankroll: €1000

Team Secret vs Team Empire (1-1 or 0-2)

Both team came from qualifiers to TI7. Except the loss against Planet Dog in Dream League playoffs, Secret has been looking strong but so has Empire. They have however been more active in tournaments during the summer but against worse teams. Do note however that Empire is up in maps since May 2017 vs Secret ( 4-3). EDIT: Resolution is standing in for Chappie til he has his visa approved. Resolution is a stable carry for Planet odd. PO knocked down Team Secret to lower bracket in Dream League 2-1 and beat them again 2-0 and went to finals losing 3-2 vs Liquid. I know you shouldn’t compare that much to old results but im sure Reso can give good insight on how to beat them. Also got the news that Planet Odd is disbanded so this might be a double edge sword for Reso.

Empire +1.5 Asian handicap for 1.55 small bet (€25)

EG vs TNC (1-1 or 0-2)

TNC is a underdog that can get far in TI7. They beat EG in Kiev majors group stage 2-0 which surprised many. Hyperagro team that can snatch a game from many teams.

TNC +1.5 Asian handicap for 1.65 small bet (€25)

Team Liquid vs IG Vitality

TL is a top contender to win TI7 and has been looking strong since their win in Dream League 7. I’m not sure how much they have boot camped since GH has been grinding up his mmr to 9800 without anyone noticing.

Team Liquid to win for 1.7, small bet (€25)

LFY vs Execration

LFY performed in July and could be a potential underdog for going far. Their players are pretty active on the map and should win this pretty easily

LFY to win 1.7, small bet (€25)

Newbee vs IG

Might be a long bloodbath and end up in a 1-1 or 2-0. Depening on the bans IG does towards Sccc im pretty certain NB could go 2-0. Risky and valuebet at 2.8 so its fine to avoid this one.

Newbee to win 2.8, small bet (€25)

OG vs Cloud9

Both games have been looking shaky but I think OG came better prepared with the team and the experience. 2-0 here feels solid

OG to win 2.5, small bet (€25)

I will edit this post once i add new bets, wish me luck :D

 
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Still day 1, won 3 out of 3 in first round. Below are bets for round 3.


EG


IGV


BO2


IGV to win 1 game


1.9


€25,00


IGV looked strong early game vs TL and EG looked weaked. If they can hold their lead vs EG i think they can take one game


LGD


Team Empire


BO2


Team Empire +1.5


1,55


€25,00


Team empire looked strong vs Secret. LGD is stronger than Secret but Empire looks hungry this TI.


Team Liquid


Fnatic


BO2


Team Liquid to win


1,7


€25,00


Miracle god played sick vs IGV, should be easy 2-0


Team Secret


Infamous


BO2


Team Secret to win


1,5


€25,00


Midone the TI1Dendi should have this one in the bag. Nice "comeback" in game 2 vs empire

 
Still day 1. Below are bets for round 4.


LFY


Hellraiser


BO2


LFY to win


1,5


€25,00


LFY looks promising, HR does not have much of a  record even if they beat mouz in quals.


Newbee


C9


BO2


Newbee to win


2,6


€25,00


Newbee looked stong in first game vs IG but second one not so much. SCCC venos was not impressive but i think they have it vs C9 who i feel had one game vs OG


OG


DC


BO2


OG to win


1,85


€25,00


Havent watched DC or VP yet this tournament  but OG has played well. Extending leads and coming back when being behind.

 
Last bets for the last round.


EG


Team Liquid


BO2


TL to win 2-0


3,5


€50,00


TL looks superstrong and should have this 2-0, RTZ Visage was a weak draft so crit might come with something more solid but i think TL and LGD 2-0 is a the best picks


LGD


Team Secret


BO2


LGD to win 2-0


3


€25,00


Secret disappoint and LGD is looking promising.


Team Empire


Infamous


BO2


Infamous +1.5


1,75


€25,00


I trust this to go 1-1, can be avoided aswell and just go for both games above


TNC


Fnatic


BO2


TNC to win 2-0


2,37


€25,00


TNC looks more hungry for wins even if both teams is not playing many games today. Should be value

 
Day 2

Yesterday was a good day. Got 11 out of 16 bets correct and gained €226.

You can find my betting spreadsheet and stream here

Round 1

Execration vs Hellraisers

Execration looked good vs VP yesterday when drafting Pugna but VP made some mistakesto give one away. This made Exec look better than they are. HR just played one matchup yesterday and played decent. I  believe this will be a tie.

1-1   for odds 1.95 €25 bet

IG vs DC

DC looked okay yestday taking one game from OG. They seem to be favouring Clock, Bat, SK and Silencer in they draft. As long as they stay away from clock they might take a game from IG. We have not seen much from IG yet taking one game from Newbee yesterday which made me impressed. Good value and likely for IG to win.

IG to win 2-0 for 2.8 €25

OG – Newbee

Match of the day in this group and very even. Depending of who back you look at the result, they are 3-4 in matches so its even. The difference i feel is that OG is better when behind and can turn games easier, we saw this twice yesterday. Ana was disappointing yday aswell but could give SCCC a fight mid (even if i think SCCC is better) In this case i believe in OG as long as they can handle Newbees pushing drafts.

OG to win 2-0 for 3.5 €25 bet

VP vs LFY

LFY did a good result yesterday and looks promising but they met HR and Exec which should be easy 2-0s. VP did what they do best, run over teams except the game againt XctN (slight mistake late which costed in fast push). VP is very likely to go 2-0 and the odds are good in this case.

VP to win 2-0 for 2.3 €25

 
Round 2 (series A4)

Team Secret vs TNC

Secret was not looking that good yesterday, Midone was playing well but Dota is a team game and i think TNC performed well vs EG.

TNC to 2-0 for 3.5 €25

EG vs Team Empire

EG did not look that strong yesterday, underestimating their opponents as always but again Liquid managed to take one game from them. I hope EG does not shape up today since i believe Empire can take one game away from EG, it depends on the mindset on EG today and if they want to suit up and focus.

Team Empire +1.5 asian (win atleast one game) for 1,9 €25

LGD vs IGV

LGD looked super strong yesterday being the only team winning 6-0 matches. IGV is a promising team that can take a game from other teams but i think this on is in LGDs bag

LGD to win 1,95 €25

Team Liquid vs Infamous

Liquid impressed yesterday even if i did not watch the last match vs EG which they lost. I think this is an easy 2-0 vs Infamous which has gone 0-2-0 but that was against Empire and Secret and Liquid is on a completly other level than them

Team Liquid to win 2-0 for 1,45 €25

 
Round 3

VP vs C9

Even if VP does look as strong as they did in the summit, i think they have it vs C9 who is on Fatas shoulders. Sure, LFY just won vs VP but LFY seems to be playing solid so far.

VP to win 2-0 1,9 €25

LFY vs IG

LFY is looking super strong, not loosing a single game (as LGD, their father). Looking at the paper, LFY should be stronger than IG even if both are convincing CHina teams in general is looking strong so its hard to bet when they meet eachother.

LFY to win 2-0 2,75 €25

 
Round four

Been incorrect with some  bets today but hope i can turn it around on this round. If i win any one of these bets, im at least break even and i dont feel they are yolobets.

Infamous vs Fnatic

Fnatic have not won one single game and is last in the group, Infamous has played 1-1 at best and is in the middle of the seeding battle. I think this game is more important for Infamous than Fnatic and they have played better so far. Hope for an AM pick both games 

Infamous to win 2-0, 5 in odds €25 euro

Team Secret vs IGV

Hard for the moment to predict which chinese team is strongest but i do know IGV is stronger than Secret in more than 1 out of 5 games. Secret won game 1 vs TNC (lost that bet) but that was more about TNC not being able to siege well rather than Secret playing good. This game or the one above should get in there most of the times.

IGV to win 2-0, 5 in odds €25 euro

Team Liquid vs LGD 

Might be a even game but i believe Liquid has a stronger playerbase. LGD lost vs IGV since i feel any chinese team can beat any chinese  team. In this case i feel like Liquid should win it

Liquid to win 2-0, 3 in odds €25 euro

 
Round 5

OG vs VP

VP has been a disappointed so far in the groupstages, their golden last months is nonexistant. Weird draft vs C9 which not did much while ramzez was farming and they ran into a 5 man dreamcoil and medusa ult. Seems to be playing with their feelings.OG o nthe other h and is looking better today, taking one game from Newbee and just won vs HR. I see LFY and Newbee as the best asian teams at the moment. (Making this bet after game one VP vs C9). Also 4 in odds for OG to win, i feel there is a value here since VP has been udnerperforming and OG seems to play better today than yesterday (VP has 3 in odds).

OG to win 2-0 4 in odds, €50

LFY vs C9

Abusing the fact that C9 won game 1 vs VP. C9 seems to be playing better today rather than yesterday but for the moment, LFY and VP is uncomparable. As stated above, LFY seems to be going far in this tournament with the way they are playing. One of these bets has to  get in there.

LFY to win 2-0 2,61 odds €50

 
Day 3

Yesterday was a red day, lost alot of bets due to VP. They were weak early during the day but decided to become the VP we know and love vs OG which made me lose alot. I hope it will get better  today and i feel more confident today so that means im raise the  bet amount. Please note bet what you are comfortable of losing.

Won 5, lost 12 yesterday -245,25 euro yesterday, -19,25 euro in total of the bankroll so we are back where we started from.

Team Secret vs EG

EG looked better yesterday but so did Team Secret. Important matchup to decide seeding in the groups so none of the teams will hold back but i think the safest bet here is a tie

Bet draw for 2,05 €50

Fnatic vs Empire

This game is important for both teams, its a fight for place 8 and 9 and the prizepool differ alot (60k USD vs 120K USD). Empire seems to be the slight favour odds wise but i think they look way stronger.

Bet Team Empire to win 2-0 for 3,1 €50 euro

LGD vs Infamous

Infamous been taking games from some teams but i highly doubt they will take one from LGD. LGD looks good yesterday and i believe they will win it and try to go for a top seed.

Bet LGD to win 2-0 for 1,55 €50

TNC vs IGV

Honestly,  could  be any teams game here so this is a risky bet. IGV is the underdog so i think its worth betting on them this game since they won against LGD yesterday and TNC threw HARD versus Team Secret with 3 buybacks on core. It will either be a tie or IGV win so im going to valuetown and betting small.

Bet IGV to win 2-0 for 4,20 €25

I'll update the post later will more predictions on later rounds. Today is ours!

 
Day 3 round 2


Exec


DC


BO2


Exec to win


5 odds


€25,00


Both teams has not been playing that well but XntC has been showing hope against most teams with at least winning 1 game. Betting small because i think this pays off in the long run


IG


C9


BO2


IG to win


2,95 odds


€25,00


IG has more discipline and C9 is well C9... In favour of IG to win since chinese dota seems to be the thing this TI7 plus C9 is rockbottom in group stage


Newbee


LFY


BO2


LFY to win


3,25 odds


€50,00


Hard game to b et on. Both teams are very good but LFY has played 2 more maps than Newbe and has not dropped a single match. Cannot say no to these odds when newbee is down 2 games (6-2).

 
Took your back on most bets but going EG 2-0 against Secret, as Secret can never be trusted

Edit: Damn :(  

 
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