NBA bets after All-Star Break until end of regular season and maybe playoffs

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biggestdosser

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Hello to all,

I used to post on the forum Bettingadvice.com my NBA picks but since the forum has pretty much died over there, I am taking my talents over to this forum as well. I will probably post one bet per day from Thursday on and see if I can recapture my previous form, my old results you can see over here: https://bettingadvice.com/tipster/99022077/1253

For the All-Star Game, there isnt much value to be had, I could see some value on CJ Mc Collum 9,4 and Karl-Anthony Towns 12,5 on Pinnacle for 3-point champions for 1/2 unit each, but that's just a fun bet. 

 
I will start my betting history here at Casinogrounds with a bet of 1 unit on Karl Anthony Towns to win the 3-point Contest at 12,8 odds at Pinnacle. All bets will be graded and posted via Pinnacle odds. Good Luck if you follow!

 
Good start with winning my first bet. Today Bet #2 Minnesota Timberwolves beat Memphis Grizzlies, Odds 2,25, every bet is 1 unit flat, no changes in unit sizes until further notice. Grizzlies have been best Team Against the Spread for the first part of the season. Bookies noticed that and have now time to really make betting Grizzlies very expensive. Therefore big value tonight on Timberwolves at home, fair line is probably 50-50 around 2,0 odds. Anything above 2,2 is for sure a bet. Good Luck 

 
Today Bet #3 LA Clippers beat LA Lakers, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Horrible Line from the bookies, making Lakers a favorite in this match-up despite Anthony Davis out and Clippers being now a dark horse for the playoffs by playing a very switch heavy wing-dominated basketball.

Clippers Coach Ty Lue has now embraced his personnel with lots of wing guys with large wingspan to make life very difficult for the opponents while having lots of options and spacing in the offense as well. 

The trades at the deadline by Clippers to offload Bledsoe and to gain Covington are for sure helping that team to improve on their basketball identity as well. 

Even With Anthony Davis, that game would be very close. Without him, Clippers have to be favorite at 1,7 odds and getting over 2.0 is a gift. 

1 unit bet at Pinnacle at odds 2,05, Good Luck

 
biggestdosser said:
Today Bet #3 LA Clippers beat LA Lakers, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Horrible Line from the bookies, making Lakers a favorite in this match-up despite Anthony Davis out and Clippers being now a dark horse for the playoffs by playing a very switch heavy wing-dominated basketball.

Clippers Coach Ty Lue has now embraced his personnel with lots of wing guys with large wingspan to make life very difficult for the opponents while having lots of options and spacing in the offense as well. 

The trades at the deadline by Clippers to offload Bledsoe and to gain Covington are for sure helping that team to improve on their basketball identity as well. 

Even With Anthony Davis, that game would be very close. Without him, Clippers have to be favorite at 1,7 odds and getting over 2.0 is a gift. 

1 unit bet at Pinnacle at odds 2,05, Good Luck
Click to expand...
Great start & Congratulations! Am gutted i didn't see this in time though thanks for posting & look forward to reading your future selections.

 
Today Bet #4 Memphis Grizzlies beat Chicago Bulls, Odds 2,0, 1 unit

Attention: This bet is depending on Ja Morant starting for Grizzlies! To be safe, simply wait until lineups are official around 30-50 minutes before tip-off. 

If he is out, you could wait for the odds to be adjusted and then play Grizzlies still if the new odds are 2,3+ , bc that would still be value on the Grizzlies without Morant.

I am already posting now, so all readers are informed. 

Grizzlies have been the most surprising team all season so far with Bulls not far behind. That's why both teams are 40-21 and 36-23 against the spread, right at the top of the league.

However, I still measure the losses of Caruso and Lonzo Ball as highly unfortunate against this versatile Grizzlies team. Those team will be massively missed containing Morant, Bane etc... Also Vucevic gonna get in real trouble defending the paint. 

Grizz lost last 2 games despite good efforts and performances, while Bulls won 6 games in a row vs. not the greatest competion + in good schedule spots. That's why this line has Grizzlies as underdogs. 

I rate Grizz as a top tier team and those top tier teams dont lose 3 in row often because they have too much skill and pride while Bulls winning streak is deceiving. Grizz motivation to stop the losing while Bulls are fat and happy with 6 wins in a row, will be a major edge tonight. Correct line with Morant would probably be Grizzlies -2,5 1,95

 
Today Bet #5 New York Knicks +8 cover vs. Philadelphia 76ers , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

This bet is based on the pricing by the bookmakers. With 76ers beating Twolves easily at Minnesota and Knicks on a losing streak.

I gave Twolves a low chance in that game because of their battle on the night before vs. Grizzlies, their mental and physical stamina was at a low. No wonder that 76ers had big win.

Knicks did actually lead big vs. Nets, then choked in 4Q. In their last game vs. strong Heat, the game was at 8 points difference with 3 minutes left in the game, so the 15 point difference doesnt really reflect the whole game dynamics. 

No question the 76ers are favorites, but NBA betting is always based on value and point spreads. 8 points to cover means that 76ers must have an easy win for this to be value for them. Knicks coach Thibs has never thrown in the towel on a season prematurely and the last 2 games at least showed me that Knicks have not given up yet.

Bookies and public think with Harden 76ers win most games very easily. I do think it will take at least a few more weeks until all plays and tactics are adjusted, so I am not quick to jump on that 76ers hype train yet.

I like Knicks to keep the game close until the end and have a good chance to cover 8 points handicap. 

 
Today Bet #6 Cleveland Cavaliers beat Minnesota Timberwolves, Odds 2,4, 1 unit

Basically all guards are out for Cavs, so Goodwin has to play lots of minutes at Point Guard and he is clearly below average, so why am I backing Cavaliers.

It's because the morale of this team has been great all season. Every few weeks they had another injury piling on and they still found ways to win games. Again vs. Wizards they were in deep trouble but somehow still found a way to win this ugly game.

That kind of fighting is what makes this team so successful despite all those injuries. On the other hand, there is some rumour that x-factor Anthony Edwards is nursing an injury which would seriously hamper the offensive potential of the Timberwolves.

Add in the rebounding edge which should benefit the home fighting spirit of the Cavs and I like Cavaliers if the game stays close. Sure Timberwolves can blow out Cavs if the point guard trouble is too big to overcome, but if they cant build a huge lead and it stays close in 4Q, I have more trust in Cavaliers at home because of their grit. 

Today Bet #7 Charlotte Hornets +10,5 cover at Milwaukee Bucks , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Lots of people like to fade teams on a Back-to-back travelling after they played an overtime game. However the bookies always adjust for that with inflated spreads, so there is no value to be had blindly playing this angle. Additionally we just had All-Star Break, so fatigue is less an issue than before the break.

Hornets are in desperation mode to win games in order to qualify as high as possible for the playoffs. Overtaking Nets or Raptors to be 8th would give them 2 chances to qualify for the playoffs instead of having to win 2 games in row in the play-in.

Last night they gave away the game vs. horrible Pistons when they underestimated them and Olynyk hit a buzzer-beater to shock them. Now they get the chance to make up the loss at Bucks. 

Usually that would be a suicide mission, however Bucks defense has been shockingly horrible over the last 5 games. The missing of Brook Lopez gets even more obvious. Bobby Portis sure isnt the answer defensively. Also the trade of DiVicenzo because of financial reasons puts more pressure on Grayson Allen to perform... which is questionable.

Bucks used to be top defense with depth on the roster. That isnt the case anymore, so the bench minutes are not an easy plus for the Bucks like in the past. If the bench cant build up a huge 20+ lead, then it will again be a close game in the last 5-6 minutes of the game.

With Hornets losing, I expect them to at least play hard, which should give them a good enough chance to keep this game within single digits. Ofc big losses can still happen despite a lead in 4Q (like Knicks 16-point loss yesterday despite leading with 8min left), however I like my chances here to get value. 

 
Today Bet #8 Brooklyn Nets +9 cover at Toronto Raptors , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Attention: This bet is based of Fred VanVleet and OG anouby out for Raptors. If you want to be safe, wait for lineups to be confirmed and then place the bet with possible odds adjusted.

That line has been inflated by yesterday's blowout at Brooklyn where Raptors won by 30+ points difference. In NBA those kind of games can happen, when one team hits a lot from 3-point range while the other team hits nothing + commits an absurd number of turnovers.

I still believe that Brooklyn has not given up yet on the season while all their stars are gone, so we should see at least a decent effort by Nets tonight. If they can learn from avoiding 20+ turnovers, use less Centers and play smaller to match up better with Rockets, that alone should keep this game more competitive.

Add on Raptors also missing 2 key guys + a low chance of Raptors repeating the same kind of 3-point shooting, then +8,5 is a way too high of a line. 

Fair line should be somewhere in the -5,5 to -6 region. Once you go over key lines like +7 and +8, then the value for away dogs really goes up. I decided to make Nets a max bet tonight because most of my key betting angles are active for this match-up where every single square bettor loves Toronto tonight, while the wise guys are on the opposite site. 

 
Today Bet #9 Miami Heat beat Milwaukee Bucks, Odds 2,6, 1 unit

This bet is based on the motivation and intensity for this game. Both teams battled each other in last 2 years in the playoffs. First Heat beat Bucks, then Bucks crushed Heat.

Now the tides have turned again a bit with Bucks being behind Heat in the standings. Miami had many injuries during this season and is missing Lowry again tonight, but they always found other players to step up.

Same thing will be necessary for the Bucks who are also dealing with some holes in their rotation with Lopez and Connaghton out. 

We will see maximum playoff intensity for this game with most of the stars being actually healthy. The longer the season the more I like Miami in regular season games because of the most strict fitness and body fat rules in the NBA. Thanks to every player improving his fitness, they are capable of playing hard all season instead of fading or resting down the stretch.

With the Bucks being champion, the motivational edge slides towards Miami to show that they are ready to dethrone the champ and win the season series 3-1 also for tiebreaker purposes. 

 
Today Bet #10 New York Knicks +10,5 cover vs. Philadelphia 76ers , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Attention, game starts very soon in 30 minutes, so play soon. I had to wait for lineups to make this bet, so it took longer.

Generally it's the same explanation of the bet like last time when they met in NY, and it was close until 8minutes left. I expect the same happening tonight, only with Knicks this time not completely falling apart late to lose big.

Bookies made Philly super expensive tonight, so value is clearly on New York to stay competitive and lose by single digits. Honestly I would not be shocked at all if Knicks win outright at huge odds 5,3. 

Good luck to all. 

 
Today Bet #11 Detroit Pistons +8,5 cover vs. Toronto Raptors , Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Keeping this short due to time constraint.

Pistons Coach Dwane Casey still is beloved in Toronto where he had a great career as a head coach, even winning Coach of the Year in 2018.

Playing his old team with some of his players from the past like Siakam and VanVleet is always high on his priority list, thats why Pistons have covered the last 5 games as dogs and even won ML.

I could be tempted to pick Pistons ML even again, but at those high lines, a cover is slightly more profitable over the long run with +8,5 spread.

Bookies still rate Pistons as worst team in Net Rating, however they have lowered the gap quite a bit over the last 3 weeks and dont look like the worst team in the league anymore. That power rankings difference between and bookies makes me bet Pistons tonight, and personally I will also add a bit on the ML at 4,2 odds.

 
Today Bet #12 New Orleans Pelicans beat Utah Jazz, Odds 2,6, 1 unit

I am still not sure, if Pelicans new team after trade deadline is for real or just a flash in the pan. However the mood around the team seems much better now and CJ has brought some more fun to the Pelicans locker room. That kind of positive change can have impact on the fighting spirit of the team.

Tonight vs. Jazz it will be hard, however I am not the biggest fan of Utah during the whole season. Ingles out due to injury does take away some of playmaking and passing despite his worse season than last year. We need to see if Danuel House can keep up his good performance so far this season after replacing the injured Ingles.

The wings of Pelicans can really trouble the defense of Utah. Rudy Gobert himself will have his hands full to keep Valenciunas off the offensive board, so O'Neale and Bogdanovic need to hold up vs. Ingram and McCollum. 

Bookies still price Jazz like a Top 3 Western Team, but after their last games I am hesitant to agree. Pelicans might still be a mediocre team but at home as such a big dog they look like a value side vs. a Jazz team which is not as dominant as the previous 2 years. 

 
Today Bet #13 Miami Heat beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 1,9, 1 unit

76ers results have looked great since the Harden Deal, however it was vs. really bad opposition like the Knicks and even then they have been in deficits during the games. 

Now they are coming on a B2B vs. Cavaliers and travel to Miami to meet the Heat who despite sitting several players in last game found a way to beat the Nets and also should have beaten the Bucks if it wasnt for some joke turnovers late.

If the 76ers again let the opponent build up a lead over the first half of the game, it wont be easy to rally vs. the HEAT who have more depth than the other teams and bench players who can widen the lead vs. the 76ers bench players.

Fatigue on the Back-to-back could play a factor, and possibly the 76ers decide to sit out players tonight at last minute. Therefore I place the bet on Heat early. Good Luck

 
Today Bet #14 Orlando Magic +15,5 cover vs. Memphis Grizzlies, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

It's very hard to bet against the Grizzlies who are still the team with the best ATS record in the league. However tonight the line is very very high vs. an opponent who is bad, but hasnt yet started to actively tank games away.

With Memphis having to travel afterwards directly to Houston, there should be more minute management today than usual, so we shouldnt see massive minutes for the starters, keeping the game possibly longer within 10 points difference. 

Magic come directly from Toronto after the win there and have Markelle Fultz available again. His return has given his team a moral boost and 15-16 minutes by him again in this game should be a plus for the team, just from a chemistry standpoint. 

If Orlando continues to play hard this season without tanking, they can continue to cover big spreads. Memphis will have to start conserving a little bit of energy at the end of the season to be ready for playoffs. 

This game looks like a good chance for them to only jump as high as necessary to crush the Magic which would mean a win in the 10-12 point region instead of 20+, so I believe this spread is 3-4 points too high and value for Orlando Magic. 

 
Today Bet #15 New Orleans Pelicans beat Denver Nuggets, Odds 2,4, 1 unit

That game is based on the match-up of Pels weakness to Nuggets strenghth. If there is one thing obvious in the Pelicans defense strategy, it's giving up more open 3-point attempts to opponents than average. So if you want to have a good chance to beat the new-look Pelicans after the trades, you better hit consistently from 3-point land.

However that 3-point performance can vastly go in both directions with the Nuggets, e.g. when they lost at home to the really bad OKC Thunder, the starters hit exactly zero 3-pointer. That kind of volume 3-point shooting is missing with the Nuggets, that's why they traded for Bryn Forbes at the deadline to get more 3-pointers up.

I had to make a decision if I jump on the Pelicans bandwagon early or not. After seeing that the bookies still saw their wins as a fluke, I will stay on them until they lose as a dog. Nuggets playstyle wont have an easy time exploiting Pelicans weakness, so I will play anything above 2,2 for Pelicans ML tonight. 

 
Today Bet #16 Detroit Pistons +7,5 cover vs. Atlanta Hawks , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Since the All-Star Break, the Pistons performances have improved. Almost all the roster is still so young and raw that you cant depend on them to play well every day as starters but at least the attitude and effort has gone up in a positive way.

Today they meet a much more talented team in Hawks, who are trying to turn the season around just like last year and improve their playoff position. However, I think last year was more of a outlier season and they were never this good anyways, similar to the Knicks drop from their results of last year.

The bookies still have Pistons as worst team in the league with OKC and Rockets, so they give them so many points at home vs. mediocre Hawks. As long as Pistons get rated that low, I see them continuing to have good chances to cover big handicap lines. If you are more risky, a sprinkle on Pistons win at 3,6 is not a bad idea instead of +7,5.

 
Today Bet #17 LA Clippers beat Golden State Warriors, Odds 2,9, 1 unit

Warriors had to split up in two teams to play in Denver yesterday while the main stars stayed at home to prepare for this game today vs. Clippers. That sure is not optimal for preparation for a good opponent.

Warriors have been struggling the last 2 weeks without Draymond Green and trying to incorporate Klay Thompson back into the line-up. His frustrations about this lack of leg strength = missing shots short, is extremely obvious and pulls the mood of the team down. He has to learn again to help his team with his defense and movement, but it will take more time for that to return.

Clippers are a top team after the trade deadline, their last loss vs. Knicks is explained by them partying a bit too hard after the Lakers drubbing. After getting their butts kicked, I expect them to stay sober and be ready for a dogfight vs. Warriors. Unfortunately Covington is out due to personal reasons which hurts Clippers a bit.

Still I see those teams battling hard once again, so the value tonight should be again on the Clippers while bookies still have a hard time downgrading the Warriors in their power rankings. On the other website I posted a bet at Clippers +7, but bookies at Pinnacle have drastically cut down the spread to +5,5, so I rather play Moneyline Clippers win now at 2,9 for better value. 

Today Bet #18 Indiana Pacers beat Cleveland Cavaliers, Odds 2,3, 1 unit

This game is a perfect situation for Pacers. They have been losing a couple of winnable games in a row while Cavaliers just sneaked out a desperate win vs. completely decimated Raptors without vanVleet and Anouby.

Only one thing makes me worry a bit: It's the question how intentional Coach Carlisle wants to lose in order to get Indiana a better draft pick. His backcourt with Haliburton and Brogdon is way too good for them to keep losing games vs. wounded opponents like Cavaliers.

Without Jarrett Allen and LeVert, Cavaliers lose a lot on OFFENSE, so they are forced to win games in low-scoring games below 200-210 points at the end. If the Pacers offense comes clicking with good outside shooting and the games ends in the 120s, the chances for Pacers win go up exponentially.

If Pacers dont win this game outright, I will not bet them for the rest of the season unless I get 10+ points as a handicap underdog. Even with tanking worries, this line should be PK and fair line 1,9. Everything above 2,2 is value for the Pacers, because bookies underestimate the impact of Jarrett Allen, he is an All-NBA team player this year for the Cavs!

 
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