NBA bets after All-Star Break until end of regular season and maybe playoffs

Today Bet #19 Charlotte Hornets beat Brooklyn Nets, Odds 2,6, 1 unit

Bookies are taking all the public bet from square bettors, believing that with Kevin Durant back, all the Nets problems are over. The truth is, the Nets even had trouble covering as favorites with Kevin Durant playing.

Line moved a lot from the opening odds of 2,2 for Hornets win and I thought that was actually a decent opening line. After some more research I see that the Hornets will be with 1 day rest advantage and having a back-to-back tomorrow vs. the stronger Boston Celtics opponent.

If I were coach Borrego, I would have much more hope getting the win tonight with fresher legs vs. a still reeling Nets team than tomorrow with tired legs vs. the devastating Celtics defense. 

Therefore a 100% effort by Hornets is pretty much guaranteed tonight and now with odds 2,4+ that is a nice value spot opportunity to take advantage of public bettors blindly betting on big names. 

 
 Today Bet #20 Charlotte Hornets +7,5 cover vs. Boston Celtics , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Yesterday an absolute horrible 1st half cost me my bet on the Hornets and the Nets had no problem protecting the 20+ point lead until the end of the game.

So why am I so keen on betting on Hornets again tonight vs. a possibly even stronger team in Celtics? Well, maybe the name recognition of KD and Kyrie was too much for the young Hornets team to overcome and they let them do what they want because of the respect for them.

Playing Celtics they face Tatum and Brown, who are good, but dont have the same aura which mystified the Hornets player on defense. Less respect will be needed to have a fighting chance vs. the Celtics. 

As hard as it is, returning to back team which lost units for me yesterday, I still think that Hornets as such big dogs is not correct while they still try to qualify for the playoffs. 

 
 Today Bet #21 Orlando Magic +8,5 cover vs. New Orleans Pelicans , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

With Ingram out, Pelicans are missing one key ingredient to their offense. While CJ McCollum has admirably filled the playmaking role and scoring punch, the rest of the team is lacking offense if Valenciunas is kept at bay.

Today vs. Orlando, he should feast on Bamba, who is way too thin to battle him in the post. However the defense also showed quite some regression with him out in the last game and we have to see if that continues because the Pels have to work much harder on offense now with Ingram out.

Orlando is a young and experienced team but with Pelicans on the back-to-back with Ingram out, I see them giving New Orleans a good game after some real stinkers. Unless Orlando shoots very badly from 3-point land tonight, it's hard to envision Pelicans winning in a rout. 

 
 Today Bet #22 Golden State Warriors beat Denver Nuggets , Odds 1,8, 1 unit

This is the worst possible spot Denver could be, after a Road win in Sacramento, having to fly to Denver and then having that long car trip back home. Usually they are the beneficiary of the crap location of the Denver airport, this time not.

Bookies are clever to make them home dogs, however even that wont make me think twice about trusting a lot on the Warriors tonight. They lost with their reserve players in a close game 3 days ago at Denver, now they have the chance for revenge with the full squad. It's gonna be really hard for Nuggets to sweep those 2 games.

In the past, bookies were very aware of the altitude home advantage for Denver, so they rarely make them home dogs. BUT, whenever they did, it's usually for extremely good reasons, therefore Denver performs pretty bad ATS as a home dog in the last seasons while Jokic has become a top player.

Even if Jokic plays like a MVP tonight, it probably isnt enough vs. a reinforced Warriors team, motivated for revenge after the last loss at Denver. 

 
 Today Bet #23 Detroit Pistons +14,5 cover vs. Boston Celtics , Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Coach Casey had success in his losing time at Detroit basically only vs. his former Team Toronto and vs. the Boston Celtics. The last 7 games Detroit covered vs. Boston. Sure they had generous lines, but still it shows that his game plan vs. Celtics is usually top-notch.

At +14,5 we really dont need much from Pistons to win this bet. Boston has a very limited rotation, so fatigue has to set in for some games where the motivation isnt so great. Tonight is exactly that kind of spot where Celtics might lack motivation to play hard for 48 minutes.

Pistons are on their way to the DRaft Lottery while Boston has become a darkhorse favorite for the NBA title. Expecting the Celtics to cover such a big line vs. a team which is still playing quite hard for their coach is a big stretch.

I trust in Coach Casey to keep his team trying hard and having a smart game plan like the past 2 years to keep Tatum and Brown under control for a comfortable cover of +14,5 points. 

 Today Bet #24 LA Clippers beat Atlanta Hawks , Odds 3,5, 1 unit

That kind of line move made me wonder if there is some kind of hidden injury on the Clippers side, but so far nothing has popped off, so I will still play the Clippers. If you wanna be safe, wait for lineups to come out to see if the normal Clippers lineup is availble without Covington and obviously PG-13 and Kawhi.

Both teams are highly dependent on their PG Trae Young and Reggie Jackson. Whenever both have struggled in the last week, their team has also lost quite badly. Again we should see that match-up decide the game, however most of the defense vs. Trae will probably be by Mann or Batum, so it's not a direct mano-a-mano.

We might see the public believing that simply Hawks home court advantage and performance guarantees them the victory tonight after 2 embarrassing road losses. That's for sure possible, however at 3.5 odds the value has to be on the Clippers and if Trae Young gets hounded in another poor shooting night, Clippers win is certainly possible. 

 Today Bet #25 San Antonio Spurs beat Utah Jazz , Odds 2,9, 1 unit

I am expecting a close game tonight with Spurs vs. Jazz but the injury of Bogdanovic made me bet on Spurs, because they lack the playmaking and understanding of the system when both him and Ingles (traded away) are not in this team anymore.

So it's basically the Donovan Mitchell show and that's feast or famine, either he wins you the game or he puts on a stinker like vs. Dallas. Ofc the Dallas defense is much better than the Spurs defense, but still his shot selection is still quite questionable.

Spurs +6 might be the smarter and safer option, but in the last weeks there have been many bigger dogs winning outright the game, so I will add the risk and go for Spurs to win the whole game in a good match-up for them. 

 Today Bet #26 Washington Wizards beat LA Lakers , Odds 2,65, 1 unit

It's the revenge game for Kuzma and Caldwell-Pope after their trade from Lakers to Wizards. While Westbrook only played for one season in Washington, the other guys were key parts of the Lakers title and then got shipped out.

It's time for them to make a statement how they feel about this and go 100% effort in this game. They have been waiting for the Lakers in Los Angeles because they had their loss at Clippers 2 days ago. So there was lots of time for them to enjoy friends and nightlife and invite everybody for tonight's game.

There is no question that Kuzma will want to show how much better he has become and that it was a mistake to trade him for WEstbrook. Maybe it's not enough to win the game, but an honest effort by Wizards would mean at least good value for our betting money at 2,5+ odds.

You could even get bigger odds once LeBron is confirmed in, but I have to post now, so all can follow

 
 Today Bet #27 Minnesota Timberwolves beat Miami Heat , Odds 3,0, 1 unit

Brutal loss yesterday at Orlando with the Twolves underestimating the Magic and then both Fultz vs. the Twolves reserves and Mo Bamba going off on them to lead the Magic to a surprising win. Beverley might be out after ear contusion yesterday as well.

Heat with a nice confident win vs. Cavs and now hosting the Twolves. Let's see how Coach Spoelstra distributes the minutes while trying to save his players legs for the playoffs. Advantage of Heat is the depth of the roster where many guys can contribute.

Twolves are a typical young team where on back-to-backs a loss in the 1st game makes them play harder in the 2nd game while a win in the 1st game makes them less hungry in the 2nd game. Their next game is in 2 days at San Antonio, so there is tonight after the game still available to party instead of before the game tonight.

That Orlando/Miami doubleheader is historically tough to sweep, so a loss in the first of those 2 games is a benefit. We should see lots of scoring again and in that kind of game the Twolves do have a realistic shot to salvage the trip with a win and go 1-1. 

 Today Bet #28 Toronto Raptors beat Denver Nuggets , Odds 3,05, 1 unit

This bet is based on my observations of the Nuggets team. They have been playing a ton of basketball over the last 10 days and sure that played a role in their last loss vs. Warriors, when they gave up a late lead and got outscored 0-13 over the last 3 minutes. 

Simply resting one day wont change that conundrum with players like Barton and Gordon banged-up, Murray and Porter still out and Jokic basically having to do all for that team. Hyland and Morris do their best to improve playmaking, but Jokic is basically irreplacable. 

That cant work for much longer and their last "wins" were still quite lucky vs. quite mediocre/poor teams, e.g. the Kings wins were closer than necessary and the Pelicans game should have been 100% a loss.

Raptors finally got VanVleet back and got already a boost with a win at Suns despite him shooting poorly. Raptors are on a back-to-back to dreaded Denver, but looking at the schedule, I would estimate the Nuggets being the more tired team in this part of the season. If the Raptors can exploit the Nuggets questionable outside shooting and win the 3-point battle decisively, thats a Raptors win more often than not. 

 
Today Bet #29 NY Knicks beat Brooklyn Nets , Odds 3,05, 1 unit

Amazing win by Nets in last game vs. 76ers where they were 100% motivated to crush them. Their defense and tenacity was overwhelming and completely destroyed the 76ers offense. 

However, that playoff intensity is not easy to repeat constantly vs. lower-ranked opponents like the Knicks. Can the Nets do the same and play as hard as they did in last game or will they try to sneak out this win without too much of an effort?

That question is 50-50 in my eyes, so with odds above 2,7+ I see enough value to play the Knicks who have continued to battle for last playoff-spot despite all the issues during the season. With Hornets struggling, they could still qualify for play-in and as long as that's the case, we should see top effort by Knicks.

Again a bet on Knicks +6 1,95 can be taken for more safer route, because in late-game situations, Knicks have often lost close games lately. But for me it's the high variance play on Knicks ML. 

Today Bet #30 Dallas Mavericks beat Boston Celtics, Odds 3,15, 1 unit

You could wait for Jalen Brunson / Dorian Finney-Smith injury confirmation to be safe, but in the interest of all readers I still post the bet before lineups are officially published. If one or both of them is out, I would lower the stake to 1/2 unit at the adjusted higher odds.  

However, I do expect the Mavs to play tonight with all main players available because Coach Jason Kidd is already playing the long game with his team, resting them in certain spots to have them fresh for the playoffs, like Brunson and Doncic sitting last week in a single game. Last game vs. Rockets was perfect opportunity for rest and still win the game.

Tonight we have marquee matchup vs. the top team in the East after the All-Star Break with the best defense and improved offense. Boston Celtics now play with a tight 8-9 man-rotation, no more experiments for Coach Udoka, that's the team he is relying on for rest of the season.

Here the issue: Last game vs. Detroit was a massive playoff-intensity battle where lots of energy was spent. I guarantee that the trainer/physiotherapist had major work to do after that game. With the Celtics embarking on a 4-game road trip in 3 days, that's a game where the Celtics can not be at 100% energy while Mavericks had time and focus to prepare. 

Sure, the Celtics could continue to play super well, but it's a super hard spot for them to match the Mavericks intensity. If the Mavericks want to send a message on national TV to declare their championship intentions, that's the best spot for them to do so. 

Today Bet #31 Orlando Magic +11,5 cover vs Philadelphia 76ers , Odds 2,05, 1 unit

You could wait for Mo Bamba/ Markelle Fultz injury confirmation to be safe, but in the interest of all readers I still post the bet before lineups are officially published. If one of them is out, I would lower the stake to 0,5 units. 

Markelle Fultz comeback story has been very successful so far with him appearing in games and Orlando automatically being competitive with 3 wins and 4 losses in his 7 games since return, which is much better than the rest of the season so far for the Magic.

It's because now the bench minutes for Magic are better in playmaking vs. the back-ups of the other team. Tonight I expect the same with him out-playing Shake Milton and keeping that game close. 

Sure, the 76ers could bounce-back after the joke loss to Nets, but 11,5 points is a ton to cover and if the Magic have Fultz and Bamba ready, I dont see the 76ers having such a huge advantage tonight. 

 
biggestdosser said:
 Today Bet #27 Minnesota Timberwolves beat Miami Heat , Odds 3,0, 1 unit

Brutal loss yesterday at Orlando with the Twolves underestimating the Magic and then both Fultz vs. the Twolves reserves and Mo Bamba going off on them to lead the Magic to a surprising win. Beverley might be out after ear contusion yesterday as well.

Heat with a nice confident win vs. Cavs and now hosting the Twolves. Let's see how Coach Spoelstra distributes the minutes while trying to save his players legs for the playoffs. Advantage of Heat is the depth of the roster where many guys can contribute.

Twolves are a typical young team where on back-to-backs a loss in the 1st game makes them play harder in the 2nd game while a win in the 1st game makes them less hungry in the 2nd game. Their next game is in 2 days at San Antonio, so there is tonight after the game still available to party instead of before the game tonight.

That Orlando/Miami doubleheader is historically tough to sweep, so a loss in the first of those 2 games is a benefit. We should see lots of scoring again and in that kind of game the Twolves do have a realistic shot to salvage the trip with a win and go 1-1. 

 Today Bet #28 Toronto Raptors beat Denver Nuggets , Odds 3,05, 1 unit

This bet is based on my observations of the Nuggets team. They have been playing a ton of basketball over the last 10 days and sure that played a role in their last loss vs. Warriors, when they gave up a late lead and got outscored 0-13 over the last 3 minutes. 

Simply resting one day wont change that conundrum with players like Barton and Gordon banged-up, Murray and Porter still out and Jokic basically having to do all for that team. Hyland and Morris do their best to improve playmaking, but Jokic is basically irreplacable. 

That cant work for much longer and their last "wins" were still quite lucky vs. quite mediocre/poor teams, e.g. the Kings wins were closer than necessary and the Pelicans game should have been 100% a loss.

Raptors finally got VanVleet back and got already a boost with a win at Suns despite him shooting poorly. Raptors are on a back-to-back to dreaded Denver, but looking at the schedule, I would estimate the Nuggets being the more tired team in this part of the season. If the Raptors can exploit the Nuggets questionable outside shooting and win the 3-point battle decisively, thats a Raptors win more often than not. 
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Thanks very much for this great tip! My bookmakers had reduced the Raptors down loads, plus I'm always a multiples fanboy, so i staked it as a double at 6.92! 

Also, I do really enjoy reading your detailed breakdown of each team and it's really informative being able to read your thinking behind each bet. Thanks again & hope you enjoyed it too!

 
biggestdosser said:
Today Bet #29 NY Knicks beat Brooklyn Nets , Odds 3,05, 1 unit

Amazing win by Nets in last game vs. 76ers where they were 100% motivated to crush them. Their defense and tenacity was overwhelming and completely destroyed the 76ers offense. 

However, that playoff intensity is not easy to repeat constantly vs. lower-ranked opponents like the Knicks. Can the Nets do the same and play as hard as they did in last game or will they try to sneak out this win without too much of an effort?

That question is 50-50 in my eyes, so with odds above 2,7+ I see enough value to play the Knicks who have continued to battle for last playoff-spot despite all the issues during the season. With Hornets struggling, they could still qualify for play-in and as long as that's the case, we should see top effort by Knicks.

Again a bet on Knicks +6 1,95 can be taken for more safer route, because in late-game situations, Knicks have often lost close games lately. But for me it's the high variance play on Knicks ML. 

Today Bet #30 Dallas Mavericks beat Boston Celtics, Odds 3,15, 1 unit

You could wait for Jalen Brunson / Dorian Finney-Smith injury confirmation to be safe, but in the interest of all readers I still post the bet before lineups are officially published. If one or both of them is out, I would lower the stake to 1/2 unit at the adjusted higher odds.  

However, I do expect the Mavs to play tonight with all main players available because Coach Jason Kidd is already playing the long game with his team, resting them in certain spots to have them fresh for the playoffs, like Brunson and Doncic sitting last week in a single game. Last game vs. Rockets was perfect opportunity for rest and still win the game.

Tonight we have marquee matchup vs. the top team in the East after the All-Star Break with the best defense and improved offense. Boston Celtics now play with a tight 8-9 man-rotation, no more experiments for Coach Udoka, that's the team he is relying on for rest of the season.

Here the issue: Last game vs. Detroit was a massive playoff-intensity battle where lots of energy was spent. I guarantee that the trainer/physiotherapist had major work to do after that game. With the Celtics embarking on a 4-game road trip in 3 days, that's a game where the Celtics can not be at 100% energy while Mavericks had time and focus to prepare. 

Sure, the Celtics could continue to play super well, but it's a super hard spot for them to match the Mavericks intensity. If the Mavericks want to send a message on national TV to declare their championship intentions, that's the best spot for them to do so. 

Today Bet #31 Orlando Magic +11,5 cover vs Philadelphia 76ers , Odds 2,05, 1 unit

You could wait for Mo Bamba/ Markelle Fultz injury confirmation to be safe, but in the interest of all readers I still post the bet before lineups are officially published. If one of them is out, I would lower the stake to 0,5 units. 

Markelle Fultz comeback story has been very successful so far with him appearing in games and Orlando automatically being competitive with 3 wins and 4 losses in his 7 games since return, which is much better than the rest of the season so far for the Magic.

It's because now the bench minutes for Magic are better in playmaking vs. the back-ups of the other team. Tonight I expect the same with him out-playing Shake Milton and keeping that game close. 

Sure, the 76ers could bounce-back after the joke loss to Nets, but 11,5 points is a ton to cover and if the Magic have Fultz and Bamba ready, I dont see the 76ers having such a huge advantage tonight. 
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I owe you another drink already!! 

For some reason my bookie didn't have Knicks v Nets listed, so i did the moneyline double on Mav v Celtic & Magic v 76ers at 23.00 (i told you i love my multiples lol!)

The Mavs i was happy to let run though it ended up well close, and then although Magic were something like 57-45 at HT i had a feeling they wouldn't hold on for the win, so because i was moneylining i cashed out at HT for 12 units profit! (And thankfully they did lose - sorry Magic)

Thanks again for another great insight, and they both scored well as sensible singles too so hope you enjoyed the profit again too!

 
dagreenblazer said:
I owe you another drink already!! 

For some reason my bookie didn't have Knicks v Nets listed, so i did the moneyline double on Mav v Celtic & Magic v 76ers at 23.00 (i told you i love my multiples lol!)

The Mavs i was happy to let run though it ended up well close, and then although Magic were something like 57-45 at HT i had a feeling they wouldn't hold on for the win, so because i was moneylining i cashed out at HT for 12 units profit! (And thankfully they did lose - sorry Magic)

Thanks again for another great insight, and they both scored well as sensible singles too so hope you enjoyed the profit again too!
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Great win for you, but keep in mind that the more games in multiples, the bigger the edge for the bookmaker becomes. That's why almost every bookie encourages multiples to earn more money. 2 games in a multiple is fine, I would not advise more games in a multiple. 

Also keep the betting sizes the same all season because NBA Moneyline betting is one of the most volatile ways to bet games. You can easily lose 10 days in a row without problem. If you check the results on the link in my first post on BETTINGADVICE, then you can see that over a lot of picks, bad runs happen quite a lot, so it never makes sense to increase bet size during a season. 

It was a good idea of you cashing out the Magic ML, because underdogs of higher than 3,2+ in odds in NBA cover more than they win outright. That's why when you got spread of +6 and higher, it's more profitable to bet them spread than on handicap. 

Therefore always enjoy the profits but never go crazy increasing risk and bet size, so you can withstand the inevitable losing streaks in betting. 

 
Today Bet #32 Utah Jazz beat Milwaukee Bucks, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

This bet is based on Gobert returning to the lineup and last game he was just sit out bc Kings are poor opponent for rest purposes. If you wanna be safe, wait for official lineups and then play it. With Gobert, the Jazz are value up to 1,85+. Without Gobert, I would simply play at the higher adjusted odds, hopefully sth. like 2,4+

Last time Bucks won at Utah was October 2001, that's 19 games in a row losing in Utah. Sure, Giannis has only been elite for the last 7-8 years, but still that's an amazing statistic. Utah's home advantage ranks highest together with Denver due to the altitude and the crazy home fans. 

Today, Bucks will get Lopez and Hill back. Especially Lopez is needed because Bobby Portis sucks on defense, but it's not gonna be easy to play well in the first 4-8 games because you can never recreate the game's intensity in practice. Playing at Utah vs. Gobert is an even bigger task for Lopez to deal with. 

Bucks defense has been horrific lately, also in their clear loss at Warriors, where they also were Road Favorites. They simply let great shooters get open looks. If that continues, they gonna get buried by Conley and Bogdanovic again tonight. This Bucks team is not got enough at the moment to be made road favorites at Utah. 

 
Today Bet #33 Denver Nuggets beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 2,15, 1 unit

The bet is based on Coach Rivers resting either Harden or Embiid in this back-to-back situation. If you wanna be safe, just wait until line-ups are announced. If Harden sits, Nuggets are value up to 2,0+. If Embiid sits, Nuggets are value up to 1,8+

I do expect Coach Rivers to sit one of them because they are not so keen on getting top seed in the East or 2nd seed in order to avoid Nets in 1st round. Coach Rivers is known in the past to play the seeding game and rest players while tanking for a better playoff matchup when he was with the Clippers.

That is for sure a more important game for the Nuggets, who got steamrolled twice now in the 4th quarter in their recent losses which made both Jokic and Coach Malone very angry. Lets see if they can channel that anger into a full game of good basketball.

Key to this game is Denver's willingness to punish 76ers by running them off the court with lots of fast break and transition baskets. Morris + Bones Hyland have to run up and down the court to make the tired 76ers legs off the Overtime win in Orlando even more tired. 

 
biggestdosser said:
Great win for you, but keep in mind that the more games in multiples, the bigger the edge for the bookmaker becomes. That's why almost every bookie encourages multiples to earn more money. 2 games in a multiple is fine, I would not advise more games in a multiple. 

Also keep the betting sizes the same all season because NBA Moneyline betting is one of the most volatile ways to bet games. You can easily lose 10 days in a row without problem. If you check the results on the link in my first post on BETTINGADVICE, then you can see that over a lot of picks, bad runs happen quite a lot, so it never makes sense to increase bet size during a season. 

It was a good idea of you cashing out the Magic ML, because underdogs of higher than 3,2+ in odds in NBA cover more than they win outright. That's why when you got spread of +6 and higher, it's more profitable to bet them spread than on handicap. 

Therefore always enjoy the profits but never go crazy increasing risk and bet size, so you can withstand the inevitable losing streaks in betting. 
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Thanks very much and is kind of you to explain as well cheers - generally any multiples i do is only ever for mini fun money, as you're right that they are too volatile for proper betting - if ever it's anything serious or if I've got to get free bet wagers completed, etc then I'll stick to easy singles - i would love to one day become the English 'Parlay' Patz, though tbh i haven't got the balls to be placing big money on sports multiples - it'd be too scary!

I had meant to say, your links real handy as well thanks and is helpful seeing your data history - look forward to reading your future posts!

 
Today Bet #34 Washington Wizards +11,5 cover vs. Golden State Warriors, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Draymond Green will be back for the Warriors, so there will be some shifting in their rotation, maybe also someone else like Wiggins sitting out. AFter the big win vs. Bucks, maybe it's not the most motivational spot today vs. Wizards, a non-contender.

That game vs. Wizards is a classic sandwich spot between two great games vs. bucks and vs. Celtics in 2 days for the Warriors team. It wont be easy for the players and Coach Kerr to show 100% effort today when you know, that a dangerous Celtics team is looming next.

Wizards failed miserably at Blazers in the last game and that should have left a bad taste in their mouth. If the Wizards score consistently like in the past weeks, then a 11,5 spread wont be easy for Warriors to cover. That high of a spread would be covered, if Warriors play 100% effort defense. I just dont think, they have the mental attitude tonight in that sandwich spot. 

 
Today Bet #35 LA Clippers beat Cleveland Cavaliers Odds 3,8, 1 unit




1,5 hours left to bet this game, so if you wanna bet this game, be quick to bet it before midnight CET.

I didnt want to add this bet but have to now after the odds for the Clippers rose so much. All square bettors think, on back-to-back the Clippers will simply quit. That is possible, however at odds 3,0+ this should still be value with Cavaliers still struggling to score unless Garland goes crazy.

Clippers usually have good defenders to deal with Point Guards who dominate the ball, making others have to beat them from outside. Cavaliers do have some shooting but it's less reliable than the penetration into the paint by Garland to score.

Ofc, it's more sensible to play Clippers +7,5 1,95 to cover but in this matchup I like Clippers ML because so far this season their clutch stats in games decided by few points has been solid. This bet is a typical odds value play which is done, when odds get too high and where you hope over the long run in a long season it pays off to bet those over-inflated odds.



 
Today Bet #36 Orlando Magic +10,5 cover vs. Brooklyn Nets, Odds 1,9, 1 unit

Again we have one of those basement teams Orlando Magic who suddenly started to play better after the All-Star Break. Fatigue of the young guys is a bit less after that break, so they try to show good performances in the last third of the season like the overtime loss vs. 76ers.

Tonight it's against the juggernaut Brooklyn Nets who have to conserve some energy to prepare for tomorrows game vs. Dallas. Only Kyrie will be able to go full throttle because he is only allowed in Away games.

The Orlando players have shown much more confidence thanks to their recent good games, so if they are not intimidated by the big names, they have all the tools to compete vs. Brooklyn and keep the game within single-digits difference. 

Today Bet #37 Detroit Pistons +12,5 cover vs. Miami Heat, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Attention: Cade Cunningham is questionable for Detroit, you can wait if he plays or is out before the game. If he is out, I would still play Detroit, but then at higher odds of +13,5 2,05.

I will keep riding the Pistons ATS winning streak over the last 3 weeks because the bookies still havent adjusted their power rankings enough to reflect the improved play of them. 

Tonight 2 main trends face each other: Pistons covering every game in a row for the last 11 games vs. Heat being very successful covering ATS after a loss. One of those trends has to break.

As always in those cases, the key is the VALUE question. At this line of +12,5 the value sure lies on the Pistons side because they have shown their fighting spirit time and time again. They might run out of gas late like at Boston, but even then they covered.

Anything up to +12 handicap at 1,91 odds is value for Pistons. Heat will be happy to win the game, blowing out the Pistons in a rout sounds excessive to me, regarding Heat's potential. For that too happen they would both have to hit lots of 3s and defend like crazy. 

 
Today Bet #38 New Orleans Pelicans beat Phoenix Suns Odds 2,7, 1 unit

Trap Game Line tonight in New Orleans, that's what I call lines which dont make too much sense at first sight and make the public bet the smallish road favorite big. And that's the kind of the games where Bookies make a fortune.

Usually that line should be at least Phoenix -7 or something similar ridicolous with the way the Suns have dominated everybody, especially on the road with 14-2 ML record, so they are an automatic bet for the casual bettor.

However with McCollum cleared after negative Covid tests and the rest of the Pelicans actually gaining some confidence by playing well in last games without him, getting him back will give them a moral boost in this home game. 

WIthout CP3 the clutch stats of Suns have to go down and they are due to lose those close games soon, therefore my money is on Pelicans ML to pull out a close victory. 

 
as much as I love your break down of the games your trackrecord isnt the best. I guess around 50%. Maybe decrease the amount of bet tips to only the ones with a higher probability of success instead of good value? 

 
TimoSchellekens said:
as much as I love your break down of the games your trackrecord isnt the best. I guess around 50%. Maybe decrease the amount of bet tips to only the ones with a higher probability of success instead of good value? 
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For higher hitting percentages you will have to look for a different handicapper, because my expertise lies in playing underdogs both spread + Moneyline and hope to maintain hitting 50% winners with an average odds of 2.3+ over all bets. Attached is my current record, which is at around 5% ROI excluding prop bets. I would love to have around 8-12% ROI but betting underdogs is high variance. There are lots of other handicappers available in all forums and on Twitter/Youtube who you should follow with different betting strategies and hit around 53-54% with spread bets. I personally dont know any successful NBA handicapper who bets odds 1,5 and lower who is profitable by hitting 70%, that's a really hard challenge to do so. Screen Shot 2022-03-16 at 21.25.48.png

Today Bet #39 Portland Trailblazers +12,5 cover vs. NY Knicks, Odds 1,97, 1 unit

That's a game which comes down to the mentality of the Knicks team and the environmnt of Madison Square Garden, the home arena of the Knicks. With the lights and the set-up of the court, it's the favorite court set-up for many young players who enter the league because it feels like playing under bright lights and you see the basket perfectly.

Knicks often play up to their competition when they face top teams but also play down to their competition when they play poor teams. It's a team full of ok and mediocre players which are not built to fully dominate and crush crap teams by 30+ points.

The Blazers team sure is tanking and playing lots of unknown players. But with the KNicks not being able to take advantage of such a huge talent disparity + with Madison Square Garden being a top location for surprising efforts by young unknown but hungry players, I am clearly leaning towards Blazers. 

Today Bet #40 Toronto Raptors beat LA Clippers Odds 2,05, 1 unit

You could wait for VanVleet's game time decision, if he plays. If he does suit up, I would still play Raptors up to Raptors -3 1,95. If he doesnt play, simply play the higher adjusted odds then.

Both teams are not that unsimilar in focussing on long athletic wings, making life hard for the opponent on defense. However Toronto does have more talent in those players and more scoring punch. 

When I have two teams with similar approaches to the game, there is an easier way for me to foresee the result of this game. Both PGs Jackson and VanVleet are banged-up and might or might not play, so this cancels each other out. 

Clippers lost several games now on the road trip by running into trouble scoring late suddenly. Raptors defense will make that even harder tonight, so it's all about Raptors offense to decide the game. If Raptors simply have an average offensive night shooting from outside, Raptors should win comfortably with 5-8 points difference. 

 
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