Preakness betting for US Saturday 5/15: 2nd Leg Triple Crown

[la_n_al]

I want to start this post with a fair disclaimer:  I am not advocating for anyone to place a bet based on my words.  You should only bet an amount that you are comfortable to lose, which will not adversely affect your life (including your mental perspective of the world)

Hey Kim/Blanco,

Saturday is the 2nd leg of the US Triple Crown for thoroughbreds.  To be clear, this year, the talent pool is quite weak (which I think is starting to affect sports in general, but that's indeed a separate discussion).  But to add level of evidence to my point, review the winners of the Kentucky Derby prep races (including internationally) and each race is a different card of horses.

Secondly, I have to admit that there is a huge shadow hanging over this race, due to the #3 horse which (at time of this email) is still entered, although I do not expect him (Minera Spirit) to race.  If you have seen any of the recent post Derby coverage you know that Minera Spirit tested positive for a banned substance directly after the race.  And although its trainer, Bob Baffert, initially came out with a full on 2 hour press barrage claiming pure innocence and how he will fight it til the bitter end, within 12 hours of this press tour, he relented and has come out with a story of quasi-admission (albeit placing blame elsewhere within his team).  So I do not expect Medina Spirit to run.

I study US thoroughbreds (have previously bred one racehorse - unsuccessfully so, born with a foot problem - her name is "Mywayorthehighway"  (to be fair, I didn't name her, the owners whom purchased her from me named her, so don't blame me for that awful name)...   but I was in early on her sire (father) "maclean's music" whom only raced one time in his career and already has a Preakness winner among his progeny "Cloud Computing"  in 2015.

When betting horseracing, there are a million angles to be considered.  Whom is the trainer?  Whom is the jockey?  etc etc...

However, I basiclaly bet on one angle alone... bloodline (whom is mama and papa?)   and to be quite straightforward, I buck the trend (normally in horseracing, a much bigger emphasis is placed on sire - papa - than is placed on dam - mamma).  I place much more emphasis on bloodline of the mother, as I my studies lead me to believe this is much more equatable to the progeny's (baby's) engine.  

With that being said, this year's crop is less than average in my perspective, measured against classes of years past.  Furthermore, I must admit that the dams (mammas) of the horses in the Preakness are less than adequate.  This is a warning.  It is not my forte....

However, bloodlines are bloodlines.  And so I focus my attention on the sire (papas) bloodline.  And I find 2 interesting horses:  #7 and #8.  Without going into the details of the bloodlines of the sires , I like these 2 horses as longshots.  As of this email, they are each at least 15-to-1, but I don't advise to bet to win.  My suggestion is to bet each to show (and if one of comes in 1, 2, or 3 you should come out on the positive side).  But if you want to be aggressive, bet them both to place and show (2nd and 3rd)..   If you want to be more aggressive, put them in exacta with whom I think is the best horse, Concert Tour#10.  Either sheepishly behind him, or box them all (which I would suggest for ultra aggresssive only).

Thanks,

Ben Jacoby