Sunflakes betting challenge in TI7 Dota 2

[Sunflake]

Hello CasinoGrounds

 

Some of you might know this but International 7 is starting this week and it is the biggest e-sports event of the year. I want to try my limits and give myself a challenge to see how far I can get betting wise but also keep you guys updated on how it goes.  This tournament is a good place to start watching the game if you are interested.

 

My Background: I have been playing Dota for nearly 10 years and I have a true passion for the game, both playing and watching. I’ve always liked betting and I made a name for myself TI5 when I turned $100 to roughly $950 (thanks to an underdog that went far) and I also turned one arcana (worth $40) to Dota items worth $3400. I’ve been on the low on betting for a while and want to do it properly this years tournament.

My setup: I will deposit €1000 and bet between 2,5 to 15% (small, mid or big) depending on my confidence and risk of the bet. I’ll post daily of the bets I will do, a little text for each team and give an update on how it went the last day, also note that my post might get edited if I adjust a bet but I always refer to my spreadsheet.

I will also stream myself casting the games i have betted on in a casual tone while communicating with the viewers on the bets wagered, both with or against me, on my twitch channel www.twitch.tv/sunflake My old childhood friend Letsgiveitaspin will join me on the stream aswell assisting with the cast.

Since many games are played at the same time (4 matches, 5 different times, 20 matchups per day), its hard to keep track of every team. In the start I will probably choose four teams for each group to watch more closely and adjust where I find the most value.

My spreadsheet: The thought behind this is to keep tabs of all my bets and see the progress during the tournament. It will be under development during the tournament and it will contain which team I bet on, odds and statistics. This is also the safest and best way to see what I actually betted on.

You can find the spreadsheet at google docs here if you want to watch my progress.

I have some more editing to do with the document and feel free to make a copy of it if you want to use it.

Goal: My goal is to tread lightly in the beginning to see the status of the teams and watch all highlights of the first day and adjust accordingly. Another goal is to get visits from some new viewers that things betting is as fun and exciting as me on Twitch. Moneywise, I would like to turn my 1000 to 2000€ which is think is doable with my experience.

 

Thanks for reading and wish me luck.

/Sunflake

www.twitch.tv/sunflake

 

[Sunflake]

Day 1 for groupstage

Starting bankroll: €1000

Team Secret vs Team Empire (1-1 or 0-2)

Both team came from qualifiers to TI7. Except the loss against Planet Dog in Dream League playoffs, Secret has been looking strong but so has Empire. They have however been more active in tournaments during the summer but against worse teams. Do note however that Empire is up in maps since May 2017 vs Secret ( 4-3). EDIT: Resolution is standing in for Chappie til he has his visa approved. Resolution is a stable carry for Planet odd. PO knocked down Team Secret to lower bracket in Dream League 2-1 and beat them again 2-0 and went to finals losing 3-2 vs Liquid. I know you shouldn’t compare that much to old results but im sure Reso can give good insight on how to beat them. Also got the news that Planet Odd is disbanded so this might be a double edge sword for Reso.

Empire +1.5 Asian handicap for 1.55 small bet (€25)

 

EG vs TNC (1-1 or 0-2)

TNC is a underdog that can get far in TI7. They beat EG in Kiev majors group stage 2-0 which surprised many. Hyperagro team that can snatch a game from many teams.

TNC +1.5 Asian handicap for 1.65 small bet (€25)

 

Team Liquid vs IG Vitality

TL is a top contender to win TI7 and has been looking strong since their win in Dream League 7. I’m not sure how much they have boot camped since GH has been grinding up his mmr to 9800 without anyone noticing.

Team Liquid to win for 1.7, small bet (€25)

 

LFY vs Execration

LFY performed in July and could be a potential underdog for going far. Their players are pretty active on the map and should win this pretty easily

LFY to win 1.7, small bet (€25)

 

Newbee vs IG

Might be a long bloodbath and end up in a 1-1 or 2-0. Depening on the bans IG does towards Sccc im pretty certain NB could go 2-0. Risky and valuebet at 2.8 so its fine to avoid this one.

Newbee to win 2.8, small bet (€25)

  

OG vs Cloud9

Both games have been looking shaky but I think OG came better prepared with the team and the experience. 2-0 here feels solid

OG to win 2.5, small bet (€25)

 

I will edit this post once i add new bets, wish me luck

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Looking forward to this night. I'll make my own sheet as well  

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Basically copied Sunflakes sheet, you can find it HERE

[Sunflake]

Still day 1, won 3 out of 3 in first round. Below are bets for round 3.

 

EG	IGV	BO2	IGV to win 1 game	1.9	€25,00	IGV looked strong early game vs TL and EG looked weaked. If they can hold their lead vs EG i think they can take one game
LGD	Team Empire	BO2	Team Empire +1.5	1,55	€25,00	Team empire looked strong vs Secret. LGD is stronger than Secret but Empire looks hungry this TI.
Team Liquid	Fnatic	BO2	Team Liquid to win	1,7	€25,00	Miracle god played sick vs IGV, should be easy 2-0
Team Secret	Infamous	BO2	Team Secret to win	1,5	€25,00	Midone the TI1Dendi should have this one in the bag. Nice "comeback" in game 2 vs empire

[Sunflake]

Still day 1. Below are bets for round 4.

 

LFY	Hellraiser	BO2	LFY to win	1,5	€25,00	LFY looks promising, HR does not have much of a  record even if they beat mouz in quals.
Newbee	C9	BO2	Newbee to win	2,6	€25,00	Newbee looked stong in first game vs IG but second one not so much. SCCC venos was not impressive but i think they have it vs C9 who i feel had one game vs OG
OG	DC	BO2	OG to win	1,85	€25,00	Havent watched DC or VP yet this tournament  but OG has played well. Extending leads and coming back when being behind.

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Tucking in after a pretty long day one, up €395,15 so far  

[Sunflake]

Last bets for the last round.

 

EG	Team Liquid	BO2	TL to win 2-0	3,5	€50,00	TL looks superstrong and should have this 2-0, RTZ Visage was a weak draft so crit might come with something more solid but i think TL and LGD 2-0 is a the best picks
LGD	Team Secret	BO2	LGD to win 2-0	3	€25,00	Secret disappoint and LGD is looking promising.
Team Empire	Infamous	BO2	Infamous +1.5	1,75	€25,00	I trust this to go 1-1, can be avoided aswell and just go for both games above
TNC	Fnatic	BO2	TNC to win 2-0	2,37	€25,00	TNC looks more hungry for wins even if both teams is not playing many games today. Should be value

[Sunflake]

Day 2

Yesterday was a good day. Got 11 out of 16 bets correct and gained €226.

 

You can find my betting spreadsheet and stream here

 

Round 1

Execration vs Hellraisers

Execration looked good vs VP yesterday when drafting Pugna but VP made some mistakesto give one away. This made Exec look better than they are. HR just played one matchup yesterday and played decent. I  believe this will be a tie.

1-1   for odds 1.95 €25 bet

 

IG vs DC

DC looked okay yestday taking one game from OG. They seem to be favouring Clock, Bat, SK and Silencer in they draft. As long as they stay away from clock they might take a game from IG. We have not seen much from IG yet taking one game from Newbee yesterday which made me impressed. Good value and likely for IG to win.

IG to win 2-0 for 2.8 €25

 

OG – Newbee

Match of the day in this group and very even. Depending of who back you look at the result, they are 3-4 in matches so its even. The difference i feel is that OG is better when behind and can turn games easier, we saw this twice yesterday. Ana was disappointing yday aswell but could give SCCC a fight mid (even if i think SCCC is better) In this case i believe in OG as long as they can handle Newbees pushing drafts.

OG to win 2-0 for 3.5 €25 bet

 

VP vs LFY

LFY did a good result yesterday and looks promising but they met HR and Exec which should be easy 2-0s. VP did what they do best, run over teams except the game againt XctN (slight mistake late which costed in fast push). VP is very likely to go 2-0 and the odds are good in this case.

VP to win 2-0 for 2.3 €25

  

[Sunflake]

Round 2 (series A4)

 

Team Secret vs TNC

Secret was not looking that good yesterday, Midone was playing well but Dota is a team game and i think TNC performed well vs EG.

TNC to 2-0 for 3.5 €25

 

EG vs Team Empire

EG did not look that strong yesterday, underestimating their opponents as always but again Liquid managed to take one game from them. I hope EG does not shape up today since i believe Empire can take one game away from EG, it depends on the mindset on EG today and if they want to suit up and focus.

Team Empire +1.5 asian (win atleast one game) for 1,9 €25

 

LGD vs IGV

LGD looked super strong yesterday being the only team winning 6-0 matches. IGV is a promising team that can take a game from other teams but i think this on is in LGDs bag

LGD to win 1,95 €25

 

Team Liquid vs Infamous

Liquid impressed yesterday even if i did not watch the last match vs EG which they lost. I think this is an easy 2-0 vs Infamous which has gone 0-2-0 but that was against Empire and Secret and Liquid is on a completly other level than them

Team Liquid to win 2-0 for 1,45 €25

[Sunflake]

Round 3

 

VP vs C9

Even if VP does look as strong as they did in the summit, i think they have it vs C9 who is on Fatas shoulders. Sure, LFY just won vs VP but LFY seems to be playing solid so far.

VP to win 2-0 1,9 €25

 

LFY vs IG

LFY is looking super strong, not loosing a single game (as LGD, their father). Looking at the paper, LFY should be stronger than IG even if both are convincing CHina teams in general is looking strong so its hard to bet when they meet eachother.

LFY to win 2-0 2,75 €25

[Sunflake]

Round four

Been incorrect with some  bets today but hope i can turn it around on this round. If i win any one of these bets, im at least break even and i dont feel they are yolobets.

Infamous vs Fnatic

Fnatic have not won one single game and is last in the group, Infamous has played 1-1 at best and is in the middle of the seeding battle. I think this game is more important for Infamous than Fnatic and they have played better so far. Hope for an AM pick both games 

Infamous to win 2-0, 5 in odds €25 euro

Team Secret vs IGV

Hard for the moment to predict which chinese team is strongest but i do know IGV is stronger than Secret in more than 1 out of 5 games. Secret won game 1 vs TNC (lost that bet) but that was more about TNC not being able to siege well rather than Secret playing good. This game or the one above should get in there most of the times.

IGV to win 2-0, 5 in odds €25 euro

Team Liquid vs LGD 

Might be a even game but i believe Liquid has a stronger playerbase. LGD lost vs IGV since i feel any chinese team can beat any chinese  team. In this case i feel like Liquid should win it

Liquid to win 2-0, 3 in odds €25 euro

[Sunflake]

Round 5

OG vs VP

VP has been a disappointed so far in the groupstages, their golden last months is nonexistant. Weird draft vs C9 which not did much while ramzez was farming and they ran into a 5 man dreamcoil and medusa ult. Seems to be playing with their feelings.OG o nthe other h and is looking better today, taking one game from Newbee and just won vs HR. I see LFY and Newbee as the best asian teams at the moment. (Making this bet after game one VP vs C9). Also 4 in odds for OG to win, i feel there is a value here since VP has been udnerperforming and OG seems to play better today than yesterday (VP has 3 in odds).

OG to win 2-0 4 in odds, €50

 

LFY vs C9

Abusing the fact that C9 won game 1 vs VP. C9 seems to be playing better today rather than yesterday but for the moment, LFY and VP is uncomparable. As stated above, LFY seems to be going far in this tournament with the way they are playing. One of these bets has to  get in there.

LFY to win 2-0 2,61 odds €50

 

[NooB2U2]

hitting leovegas, bet365 and pinnacle but no pressure m8

[Sunflake]

11 hours ago, NooB2U2 said:

hitting leovegas, bet365 and pinnacle but no pressure m8

Nice to hear, hope you win some and you seemed to win abit yesterday

[Sunflake]

Day 3

 

Yesterday was a red day, lost alot of bets due to VP. They were weak early during the day but decided to become the VP we know and love vs OG which made me lose alot. I hope it will get better  today and i feel more confident today so that means im raise the  bet amount. Please note bet what you are comfortable of losing.

 

Won 5, lost 12 yesterday -245,25 euro yesterday, -19,25 euro in total of the bankroll so we are back where we started from.

 

Team Secret vs EG

EG looked better yesterday but so did Team Secret. Important matchup to decide seeding in the groups so none of the teams will hold back but i think the safest bet here is a tie

Bet draw for 2,05 €50

 

Fnatic vs Empire

This game is important for both teams, its a fight for place 8 and 9 and the prizepool differ alot (60k USD vs 120K USD). Empire seems to be the slight favour odds wise but i think they look way stronger.

Bet Team Empire to win 2-0 for 3,1 €50 euro

 

LGD vs Infamous

Infamous been taking games from some teams but i highly doubt they will take one from LGD. LGD looks good yesterday and i believe they will win it and try to go for a top seed.

Bet LGD to win 2-0 for 1,55 €50

 

TNC vs IGV

Honestly,  could  be any teams game here so this is a risky bet. IGV is the underdog so i think its worth betting on them this game since they won against LGD yesterday and TNC threw HARD versus Team Secret with 3 buybacks on core. It will either be a tie or IGV win so im going to valuetown and betting small.

 

Bet IGV to win 2-0 for 4,20 €25

 

I'll update the post later will more predictions on later rounds. Today is ours!

 

[Sunflake]

Day 3 round 2

 

Exec	DC	BO2	Exec to win	5 odds	€25,00	Both teams has not been playing that well but XntC has been showing hope against most teams with at least winning 1 game. Betting small because i think this pays off in the long run
IG	C9	BO2	IG to win	2,95 odds	€25,00	IG has more discipline and C9 is well C9... In favour of IG to win since chinese dota seems to be the thing this TI7 plus C9 is rockbottom in group stage
Newbee	LFY	BO2	LFY to win	3,25 odds	€50,00	Hard game to b et on. Both teams are very good but LFY has played 2 more maps than Newbe and has not dropped a single match. Cannot say no to these odds when newbee is down 2 games (6-2).

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Took your back on most bets but going EG 2-0 against Secret, as Secret can never be trusted

Edit: Damn  

[Sunflake]

1 hour ago, LetsGiveItASpin said:

Took your back on most bets but going EG 2-0 against Secret, as Secret can never be trusted

Edit: Damn  

Feel sorry for your buddy, you will win it back with LFY. They look strong

[Sunflake]

Day 3 round 3

 

 

Team Liquid	TNC	BO2	Liquid to win	2,37	€50,00	Liquid looks great this tourny and giving these odds for a win is a bargain. Raven and KUKU might take one game from them but not two but x2 bet is superlow so i think this is valuetown
EG	Infamous	BO2	Infamous to win at least one	3,4	€25,00	EG is looking strong but Infamous has been winning a map from better teams. EG also has RTZ who has not been looking impressive and they often underestimate their opponent. Skip or go for a low yolobet.
IGV	Team Empire	BO2	IGV to win 2-0	2,37	€50,00	My argument for this bet is that Empire loost 0-2 vs LGD, IGV won 2-0 vs LGD. Could get risk if the Empire strikes back the second game

[Sunflake]

C9	Exec	BO2	Exec to win at least one	1,9	€25,00	Important game for both to not get 9th, HR who is last for the moment went 1-1 vs exec and havent met C9 yet. i think exec has one of these games.
LFY	DC	BO2	LFY to win	1,8	€50,00	LFY looks superstrong, glad i predicted before TI7 to end up top2. Not much of a analysis that has to be made, just check them play dota.
Newbee	HR	BO2	Newbee to win	1,5	€50,00	See my LGD vs infamous bet above, should be an easy 2-0.
OG	IG	BO2	IG to win	5,5	€50,00	Hardest bet this game but i think the odds are skewed towards OG because they are from the western sceene and IG is from asia. IF IG wins vs C9, both OG and IG are 6-4 in the group at the 4th and 5th place so both teams will try hard but i rather bet on IG due to the odds. This is also an imporant descision coming into day 4. OG is meeting exen and LFY. IG will only meet VP so the result of this game is even more important for IG since they can only get 2 more points tomorrow, OG can get four.

[Sunflake]

Day 3 round 5

My heart hurts irl  so ill be short so i can watch the games from bed.

 

EG	LGD	BO2	LGD to win 2-0	5	€50,00	Value bet, LGD can beat EG (same thought as OG vs IG but that did not go through this time)
IGV	Fnatic	BO2	IGV to win 2-0	2,5	€50,00	Fnatic plays bad, IGV is holding megas vs Empire for the moment... Should be an easy 2-0
Team Liquid	Team Empire	BO2	Team Liquid to win	1,61	$50,00	TNC took a game off Liquid, not sure if this was a great  bet i did since if TNC can take a game of TL,  so can Empire but i believe in my water boys
TNC	Infamous	BO2	TNC to win	1,57	$50,00	TNC should have this

[Sunflake]

Day 4

 

Went good yesterday 10 wins out of 19 games and €227,75 profit.

For how the groups can go, i refer to this post Also, please make your own analysis since what im stating below abotu seeding might get incorrect sometimes.

 

Round 1

 

C9 vs DC Tie

C9 needs to win at least 3 games to get to main event and they meet HR later on. I think they can snatch a game from DC and then they win vs HR. DC needs to win all of their games and hope VP and Newbee atl east losing 2 so i think they are set where they are

Betting tie 1-1 for 1,95 €50

 

IG vs HR

IG needs to win 2-0 to get into a tiebreaker with OG losing one game. I see this as a possiblity, also HR has a chance but they are looking very slim.

IG to win for 1,45 €50

 

Newbee vs VP Tie

I see these teams as very even in the groupstage To quote the link above "Newbee and VP both can ensure their UB if they win all of their games, 3 wins would ensure them at least a tiebreaker for 4th place, maybe higher".

Betting tie 1-1 for 2 in odds €50

 

OG vs Exec

Exec has a very very low chance to go into tiebreaker vs HR but i do not see it happening. OG will need to win this and i believe they will even if Exec could take a map of OG. Could avodi this bet.

OG to win 1,53 €50

 

Will editting this post once i put in more bets. You can find my spreadsheet here

 

Round 2

 

EG vs Fnatic

Watch the link above for potential outcome, i think EG has this one easy.

EG to win 2-0 1,45 €50

 

LGD vs TNC

TNC has to win at least one game to be guarantee UB and i think they can do it vs LGD. TNC played great yesterday and better odds on tie than +1,5.

Tie for odds 2 €50

 

Team Liquid vs Team Secret

I give slight edge to Liquid. Will either end in a win for Liquid or tie but its hard to say, could avoid this one aswell.

Tie for 2,15 €50

[Sunflake]

Round 3

 

Cloud 9 vs Hr

Cloud 9 seems to be winning 2-0 vs DC for the moment. This means HR is out of main event so the game does not mean anything for them. IFor C9 it means better seeding

C9 to win 1,75 in odds €50

 

Newbee vs DC

I do not thin any of the teams has anything to really play for except DCs seeding (DC has to win vs NB and OG has to lose all games). Still think the odds are good for NB and DC was underperforming vs C9 (lost that bet)

Newbee to win for 1,9 €50

 

OG vs LFY

LFY has nothing to play for, OG has.

OG to win, 3,25 €50

 

VP vs IG

Important game for both and i see them as even. I can see IG taking a game from VP but not more.

+1,5 on IG (win at least one game for odds 1,53 €50

[Sunflake]

Main event, day one.

 

For the moment im in profitville but only 50€. Here are my bets for tomorrow, most are yolos and the reasoning behind it is that its many BO1s, anything can happen then and you get no second chances.

 

Team Liquid	IG	BO3	Over 2,5 games played	2,1	€50,00	I put TL as favorite 70/30 but i really think IG can take a game from them. Better odds for more than 2,5 games than asian handicap.
Newbee	EG	BO3	Over 2,5 games played	1,95	€50,00	Even more even here than the game above so if you want to choose one bet, go for this one since i see this really going into three games by looking at how they have been playing
Team Secret	Exec	BO1	Exec to win	2,95	€50,00	I think this game is more even than most think. The Pinoys can suprise any team including Secret.
C9	Team Empire	BO1	Team Empire to win	2,05	€50,00	This can go either way. C9 plays fun and risky dota and Empire plays risky aswell. Its a coinflip and then i go will Empire because i think Reso is a better carry than fiftEE.
OG	Infamous	BO1	Infamous to win	3,3	€50,00	Both OG and Infamous has had their shining points and now they are all in. Going Infamous for the odds since  the peruvians can win against any team and im s ure they would like to beat out the major masters.
IGV	DC	BO1	DC to win	2,05	€50,00	DC played better in the end of the groupstages and IGV is very inconsistant. This bet could be avoided but i believe in the mixed team rather than the worst chinese team (they are still good tho)