Kim, on extra chilli gambles

[asmeister]

Tried asking you this in twitch chat but you missed it, probably with all the GAMBLE!!!!11 COLLECT!!!!111 going on

 

A question about the gamble feature: the wheel represents 60% probability of success and you also suggest it, but is it actually that? Are you going by the graphic which the game suggests, or do you have actual information from the provider that it is 60/40?

 

PS. To everyone, please don't interpret this as me saying the game is unfair and "rigged" in the sense that it's a rip-off, in fact I think it's on the contrary. Certainly it would require a humongous batch to figure it out, but the graphic 60/40 suggests gambling all the way has a ~13% probability (if my maff is correct) and to be honest from all the all-out gambles I've seen in total, the ~13% seems too low.

 

[Play The Game]

I rarely gamble on the wheel.

If it comes 8 spins then i take it.

After i have a few crap bonuses in a row then i gamble, But never past 16 there is no point.

If it is going to pay then it will regardless of amount of free spins.

Please dont get me wrong i would take 24 over 8 spins any day, But to gamble on 16 spins i must be winning for the day. 

[DhvBonanza]

@burhan.k- If you collect 8 spins every time you must average like a 15x bonus

I do kinda agree with your other sentiments though. I usually gamble to at least 20 spins but I'm not convinced the 20 and 24 spins are worth the risk. I would say I've had like 50 bonuses of 300x + on Chilli and in only ONE of those did the big win happen after the 16th spin (I got a 400x on the 17th spin once). Other than that one time, the last 4-8 spins pay like 50x on average for me. 

[Play The Game]

The thing is you can start off bad and still end up with a decent bonus on extra chilli and visa versa.

I have had 23x on 8 spins, I have also had 6x on 16.

I hate the first gamble but i do like to get +4 bonus drop then only have to gamble once for the 16

[Initiative]

Would be interesting to actually know if it is 60/40 like the wheel suggests.

[Skylined87]

The visual representation must follow the math, it's a requirement to acquire a license and pass the tests of the slot, otherwise it would be misleading for a player.

[Spajek]

Today i bought 4 bonuses and riped all 4 in 1 gamble ...

[Andreas]

1 hour ago, Skylined87 said:

The visual representation must follow the math, it's a requirement to acquire a license and pass the tests of the slot, otherwise it would be misleading for a player.

You are mostly correct here but I think it applies only to what you can find in real life - like a deck of cards and its symbols or a roulette wheel. You don't see many Extra Chilli Bonus Gamble wheels or Mega Fortune Jackpot wheels in your local grocery store  

However, it could be that when the button is "Gamble" the representation needs to be correct and when it's "Spin" it can be weighted - or something along those lines. I need to read up on it

[Skylined87]

52 minutes ago, Andreas said:

You are mostly correct here but I think it applies only to what you can find in real life - like a deck of cards and its symbols or a roulette wheel. You don't see many Extra Chilli Bonus Gamble wheels or Mega Fortune Jackpot wheels in your local grocery store  

However, it could be that when the button is "Gamble" the representation needs to be correct and when it's "Spin" it can be weighted - or something along those lines. I need to read up on it

Yeah that's what I ment. If it's shown 60-40% CHANCE in visual, the math behind has to be 60-40%  However probability of winning on that gamble is different topic.

[BoracicLint]

I think the bonus should be 12 spins by default,same as Bonanza.It makes a big difference whatever stake you play and is fairer to the player in my view.I don't gamble it at all as I think its too hard to get in the first place.

[gingerafro]

only thing thats disturbing is that there is one spot on the wheel u cant hit. and therefore i dont understand how the gambles after 8-12 are 60/40 in your favor

[gingerafro]

can someone help me and make a case against btg on this particular thing. i dont understand why they are lying about it being 60/40. and the spot thats unable to hit on the gamble, makes it 50/50 all the way. someone must help me, this causes A LOT of players to lose money because they think the odds actually are in ur favor when it isnt. 

a simple lie, can hurt many people.

Just now, gingerafro said:

can someone help me and make a case against btg on this particular thing. i dont understand why they are lying about it being 60/40. and the spot thats unable to hit on the gamble, makes it 50/50 all the way. someone must help me, this causes A LOT of players to lose money because they think the odds actually are in ur favor when it isnt. 

a simple lie, can hurt many people.

they dont even respond when i try to contact them, that makes me more curious. they have to speak up!!!!!!!

[Skylined87]

12 hours ago, gingerafro said:

can someone help me and make a case against btg on this particular thing. i dont understand why they are lying about it being 60/40. and the spot thats unable to hit on the gamble, makes it 50/50 all the way. someone must help me, this causes A LOT of players to lose money because they think the odds actually are in ur favor when it isnt. 

a simple lie, can hurt many people.

they dont even respond when i try to contact them, that makes me more curious. they have to speak up!!!!!!!

@gingerafro Try out the following thing:

Get a coin and flip it. Odds are 50% that it will land for example tails. You can get it in 1 try or you can get it after 10 or even more tries - that's called probability.

The wheel can't be "rigged" as it represents the math model behind the slot and it's required by licenses and regulators that it cannot mislead.

Read more on difference between odds and probability here.

[gingerafro]

ofcourse, but why have a spot on the wheel which is supposedly hittable, but its  in reality impossible to hit? why dont they just say every gamble is 50/50 then? that would have been much much better. the 60/40 is a lie period. 

[gingerafro]

right now, its 2000X spent since ive last got to play a bonus in extra chilli. 30 of these bonuses didnt make the first gamble, the last 10 got the same flicker spin on the wheel when u are betting the 12-16 spin. math or not, the similarites of the spins are not random. 

3 minutes ago, gingerafro said:

right now, its 2000X spent since ive last got to play a bonus in extra chilli. 30 of these bonuses didnt make the first gamble, the last 10 got the same flicker spin on the wheel when u are betting the 12-16 spin. math or not, the similarites of the spins are not random. 

HOW, can the slot give THE SAME  FLICKER SPIN ON THE WHEEL 20 TIMES IN a row on 12-16 gamble U KNOW its missing. HOW IS THAT NOT RIGGED? 2500x since i got to play the nonrigged extra chilli bonus

[Nicola]

I played Extra Chilli for a few hours today (all brought gambles) and the times I stuck with 8 spins, these were the ones that paid the most!

You wait until Who Wants to Be A Millionaire comes out next month. You can gamble up to 50 free spins in the hot seat!

[Skylined87]

2 hours ago, gingerafro said:

right now, its 2000X spent since ive last got to play a bonus in extra chilli. 30 of these bonuses didnt make the first gamble, the last 10 got the same flicker spin on the wheel when u are betting the 12-16 spin. math or not, the similarites of the spins are not random. 

HOW, can the slot give THE SAME  FLICKER SPIN ON THE WHEEL 20 TIMES IN a row on 12-16 gamble U KNOW its missing. HOW IS THAT NOT RIGGED? 2500x since i got to play the nonrigged extra chilli bonus

@gingerafro, I suggest you take a look at my reply above again. Even if it's 60-40 odds, you should win more often, but with just a fraction more. In fact, I believe it's about 13% chance to get up to 24 spins (from my memory, might be wrong). 

I've myself done countless of Extra Chilli bonuses and the game can be just brutal. Think my amount of lost gambles is about 15 in a row. And yes I understand your frustration because I have been there myself  

As for the "flicker spin" - yes there is a tell when you're going to have a losing wheel spin (but it doesn't mean that it's rigged, just means that you weren't lucky probability wise). Most of the slot providers have a tell when you're gonna have e.g. a winning spin or a feature. Observe any slot from Play'N'Go, if reels drop in faster means its a winning spin - just an example.

Above all, I cannot stress this enough: Odds and probability are NOT the same thing - you're welcome to ask @Big Time Gaming official about it.

[bednak]

Really nice thread ! 

That's my point of view about that chili gamble . 

So, the RTP while buying a feature drop (tm) is between 96.26% and 96.82%. (info on the last page of the help tab in the game)  So a difference of 0.56% RTP between 8 spins and 24 spins right ? 

Let's assume that the gamble is fair and you really have a probability of 50% on the 1st gamble and 60% on the other 3. Let's assume that this RTP difference is split even between the 4 levels ( 0.56% / 4 = 0.14% extra RTP each time you win a gamble)  And finally let's say you buy 100€ features. 

So, is it REALLY worth risking 100€ to get 0.14% extra RTP per level ? Like... How many time you will lose your 100€ before getting something back with those 0.14% ?  Even worse, say you always gamble to get 24 spins. The first gamble is 50/50.. the other ones are 60/40. So it looks like to be EV+ to gamble all the way to 24... But again ... Everytime you gamble after the first level, you will in theory, lose 4 times out of 10 your 100€. Remember if you manage to get to 24 spins, you won 0.56% extra RTP ... I don't know if it's really worth the risk . 

I hope all that make sense I may see things the wrong way and I'll be happy to read what you think about that guys

For me , I have no doubt that the 50% and 60% gamble chances are not rigged. They don't need that to earn money.

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, bednak said:

Really nice thread ! 

That's my point of view about that chili gamble . 

So, the RTP while buying a feature drop (tm) is between 96.26% and 96.82%. (info on the last page of the help tab in the game)  So a difference of 0.56% RTP between 8 spins and 24 spins right ? 

Let's assume that the gamble is fair and you really have a probability of 50% on the 1st gamble and 60% on the other 3. Let's assume that this RTP difference is split even between the 4 levels ( 0.56% / 4 = 0.14% extra RTP each time you win a gamble)  And finally let's say you buy 100€ features. 

So, is it REALLY worth risking 100€ to get 0.14% extra RTP per level ? Like... How many time you will lose your 100€ before getting something back with those 0.14% ?  Even worse, say you always gamble to get 24 spins. The first gamble is 50/50.. the other ones are 60/40. So it looks like to be EV+ to gamble all the way to 24... But again ... Everytime you gamble after the first level, you will in theory, lose 4 times out of 10 your 100€. Remember if you manage to get to 24 spins, you won 0.56% extra RTP ... I don't know if it's really worth the risk . 

I hope all that make sense I may see things the wrong way and I'll be happy to read what you think about that guys

For me , I have no doubt that the 50% and 60% gamble chances are not rigged. They don't need that to earn money.

That's not how it works though. You never play to RTP based on 1 game. Odds per spin could be 0, it could be 30000%. True RTP is only assessed over millions or billions of spins. Even then it's an average. 

 

The big problem is still for me with the wheel gamble. I feel it is a absolutely misleading to suggest that simple odds such as 50/50 or 60/40. In reality we all know these are not the true odds based on the mathematical model and makeup of the slot. I think it hard to provide any actual published odds for the wheel. So the point remains that I feel it's massively misleading. This game has ripped me to pieces in the past. The gamble from 12 to 16 is the hardest one imo. Because when you reach 16 you are guaranteed at least 8 spins(and likely some kind of win even if smaller than your bet). Therefore if it was a losing spin the slot will not let you get to 16. This is where things get confusing with RNG. How can an RNG operate when it's possible to just collect 8 spins to get something when the slot wanted to pay zero by expecting you to gamble the wheel. I'm sure there is an algorithm somewhere to level it out.

[tommy2u2me]

On 06/06/2018 at 06:00, burhan.k said:

I rarely gamble on the wheel.

If it comes 8 spins then i take it.

After i have a few crap bonuses in a row then i gamble, But never past 16 there is no point.

If it is going to pay then it will regardless of amount of free spins.

Please dont get me wrong i would take 24 over 8 spins any day, But to gamble on 16 spins i must be winning for the day. 

You said to gamble on 16 you must be winning on the day. If that is the case, you should never gamble 12 to try and get 16. You lose 12 spins or get an extra 4.... So why gamble 12 to get 16? You can't lose the gamble on 16 spins, you get 8 if you lose. Collect 12 or gamble to 20.

[tommy2u2me]

On 18/10/2018 at 22:51, AyrshireCSC said:

That's not how it works though. You never play to RTP based on 1 game. Odds per spin could be 0, it could be 30000%. True RTP is only assessed over millions or billions of spins. Even then it's an average. 

 

The big problem is still for me with the wheel gamble. I feel it is a absolutely misleading to suggest that simple odds such as 50/50 or 60/40. In reality we all know these are not the true odds based on the mathematical model and makeup of the slot. I think it hard to provide any actual published odds for the wheel. So the point remains that I feel it's massively misleading. This game has ripped me to pieces in the past. The gamble from 12 to 16 is the hardest one imo. Because when you reach 16 you are guaranteed at least 8 spins(and likely some kind of win even if smaller than your bet). Therefore if it was a losing spin the slot will not let you get to 16. This is where things get confusing with RNG. How can an RNG operate when it's possible to just collect 8 spins to get something when the slot wanted to pay zero by expecting you to gamble the wheel. I'm sure there is an algorithm somewhere to level it out.

The RNG doesn't decide what to pay out based on what players collect in spins on the bonus. The RNG decides what 8 spins should pay, the same way it decides what 24 spins will pay. As long as there is lots of people that gamble the Extra Chilli bonus (which there always will be) then 8 or 12 spins will always be worth taking unless you plan to gamble to 20/ NOT 16. Taking 16 spins is a -EV decision. Risk 12 to win 4 and collect even though to gamble 16 is guaranteed to pay 8 spins even after losing.

 

[SweFjorod]

Ok, lets say you buy 100 bonuses (all 100 start with 8 spins for this math), you never collect but you gamble them all to 24.

First gamble 50 bonuses will be lost, 50 bonuses will continue on 12 spins (50/50) 50% bonuses lost.

Second gamble 20 bonuses will be lost and 30 bonuses will be continue on 16 spins (60/40) 70% bonuses lost.

Third gamble 12 bonuses will be lost and 18 bonuses will continue on 20 spins (60/40) 82% bonuses lost.

Fourth gamble 7,2 bonuses will be lost and 11,8 bonuses will continue on 24 spins (60/40) 89.2% bonuses lost.

So to gamble 8 spins to 24 spins you have 11.8% chanse of making it when first gamble is 50% and the rest is 60%

So to gamble 8 spins to 20 spins you have 18% chanse of making it.

So to gamble 8 spins to 16 spins you have 30% chanse of making it.

And finally to gamble 8 spins to 12 spins you have 50% chanse of making it.

So yeah, they don't need to rig the wheel, by pure math, those who allways tries to gamble to 20 or 24 spins, 82%+ of those bonuses pay ZERO as they have lost the bonus wheel.

[SweFjorod]

Well, my last statement is wrong, because if you loose when you gamble from 16+ you actually still get spins, so it's not zero

[asmeister]

On 21/09/2018 at 14:14, Skylined87 said:

The visual representation must follow the math, it's a requirement to acquire a license and pass the tests of the slot, otherwise it would be misleading for a player.

This  (or the posts afterwards suggesting the same thing) cannot be true, because if the visual representation would be accurate in slot games people would be hitting on average, the mega fortune jackpot at a 1/144 rate, mega moolah mega jackpot at a 1/20 rate, or the mega moolah major jackpot at a 3/20 rate. 

Again, not suggesting that BTG is over- or underrepresenting the odds through graphics, but the graphics do not seem to be proof of it.

[SweFjorod]

Ok, let's remake that calculation as I forgot that you actually get freespins if you gamble on higher spins.

If you buy 100 freespins and all start at 8 spins.

From 8->12 (50/50) 50% of bonuses lost 50 left.

From 12->16 (60/40) 40% of bonuses lost (70% of total bonuses lost) 30 left.

From 16->20 (60/40) 40% of bonuses will be 8 spins (70% of bonuses lost, 12 will be 8 spins), 18 left.

From 20->24 (60/40) 40% of bonuses will be 12 spins (70% of bonuses lost, 12 will be at 8 spins, 7,2 will be at 12 spins), 10,8 will be at 24 spins.

So if you gamble all you bonuses 70% of them will be lost with no win what so ever if you start at 8 spins with the gamble.

The 30% that will be a bonus it's 12% at 8 spins, 7,2% at 12 spins and 10,8% at 24 spins if you allways gamble all the way to 24,.

If you always stop at 20 spins then it's 18% that of your freespins will be at 20 spins, and previous % is the same.